A new poll today in the Watertown Daily Times on the heated special election for the 48th Senate seat shows a dead heat between Democrat Darrel Aubertine and Republican Will Barclay.
The district includes St. Lawrence, Jefferson and Oswego counties. The race is a critical bellwether on whether Republicans can maintain their two-seat majority in the Senate.
And the fact that the $2 million race appears to be a dead-heat is troubling for Republicans because the district has about 30,000 more Republicans than Democrats.
But Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno dismissed the poll this morning on an Albany radio show, saying “polls, especially in special elections, don’t mean much.”
12 Comments
It is absurd to call this election a “bellwether.” A special election is extremely likely to be any indication of a trend in the general election, especially in a presidential election year. Mr. Spector either knows little about politics or is laying the ground work for a “prediction” that districts with a Republican enrollment edge are leaning Democrat this year, should Aubertine win.
Quite possibly both.
Typo correction: “A special election is extremely UNlikely to be any indication of a trend in the general election…”
wrong susan..if an upstate district with 30,000 more
republicans than democrats elects a democratic state
senator it does not bode well for maintaining a republican
majority in the state senate…and if that district
goes democratic what happens in other state senatorial
districts in the fall…apparently elliot spitzer’s
lack of popularity is not keeping voters from
supporting a democratic state senate…just look
at the new registration figures in new york..
200,000 plus new democrats and 4100 new republicans
what would you need to convince you that there is
a trend?
Do your homework before spouting off, “consultant.” There’s a lot more going on in that particular race than Democrat vs. Republican. Those issues do not necessarily translate to other Senate races, nor can one special election set a “trend” for a general election on a presidential election year.
why don’t you tell us why you think the race is not
indicative of other senate races, is there something about
the Republican that is turning voters off other than
his party …shouldn’t you be apprising mr spector
if that is the case….For example last year in Rockland
the DA lost because of his feud with local police departments…I would love to here your explanation
but all things being equal Republicans in New York
largely because of the New York Conservative Party
are taking a beating
I’ve followed this race for months but I’m not about to do your homework for you. Use Google News to read up on the race and try to catch-up. You’ll find a nasty bit of mudslinging, union endorsements, and third-party endorsements are in play here, among other issues. And you probably also don’t know that if Aubertine were downstate, he’d be branded a right-winger. And stop beating the drum against the Conservatives. It is as tiresome as it is wrong.
Desparately Seeking Susan:
Barclay should be ahead in this race by a walk. Solid Republican district, big enrollment edge. He probably will win by a little bit. But why isn’t he way ahead – aside from Aubertine being the best Democrat to run in that seat?
The Consultant’s right – there is a trend line out there: Republicans in NYS are not running as strong, special or general election as they should be. And it will seep over into other races—blame George Pataki for not building the party through his tenure. The Senate is in jeopardy of going Democrat – even if this seat stays Republican. AND if it does go Democrat in this special, a lot of smart people who donate money are going to think twice about going to the wall for Bruno’s majority if it’s about to disappear.
The article – and he Consultant are correct. Looks like the Republican controlled Senate is on its last legs – if this Special Election goes Democratic it is over.
This is less about the individuals involved – but more about the last place of control for Republicans in the State. That is why it is a 2 million dollar special election.
Listen people, I know the area well and are dealing with many of the Chairman of both Parties in areas concerned in this race.
This is a Upstate Race with many different reasons for the poll numbers….
One being Unions and the other because the NY GOP has not done enough on Social & Fiscal issues in the past years.
(Something that is now hurting Republicans Statewide!) The Base is sitting home or just SCREWING the GOP Statewide for there past conduct.
But take note….The winner of this Senate Seat will come because of the votes cast on the New York Conservative Party Line! (Bruno should kiss the ring of Mike Long)
The State GOP is in this major mess for one reason and one reason only…..NY State GOP has forgotten about what Republicans stand for.
Family Values, Low Taxes and Spending, Smaller Government, Pro-life and 2A Issues.
The County GOP Chairman will tell me that the 12 years of the Pataki programs has clearly affected their GOP Counties around the State.
GOP Chairs state the their Counties have lost petition gathers, fundraising supporters $$$, those who attend their dinners etc. Grass roots are disenfranchised with the GOP Party.
These Chairs have lost their supporters and have problems in result of their grass roots dissolving in Counties around the State.
Liberal GOPers have cause a mass exit of supporters and grass roots at County levels. (GOP passed Anti – 2A laws, SONDRA, Tax Increases, Pro-Abortion Bills)
If I hear these negative comments made all the time, why don’t the so called GOP leaders hear it?
In fact, many former GOPers have told me, what is the difference between the GOP & Dems?
GOP Leaders have Albany Tunnel Vision, Albany Tunnel Vision, Albany Tunnel Vision, Albany Tunnel Vision,
which in turns gives us
The Most Dysfunctional State Government in America, The Most Dysfunctional State Government in America, The Most Dysfunctional State Government in America,
People have been taxed out of their homes. In fact 1 million GOPers have left this State from upstate alone in the last 10 years.
RE: There is tension in Albany as GOP control of the state Senate appears in real jeopardy, in party because the 48th SD race is closer than expected – one insider said a loss there could lead Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno not to seek re-election.
NY State GOP has handed us Elmer Pataki along with Clueless (I Stand for Nothing) Chairman Sandy Treadwell as leaders who did not rebuild the Party.
The NY GOP has handed NY Howard Mills for US Senate. (Against Brooklyn Liberal Schumer, give me a break)
The NY GOP has handed NY recent Lost GOP Controls of many Counties across the State.
The NY GOP has handed us Lost US Congressional Seats, NY Senate Seats & Assembly Seats.
The NY GOP has lead the Charge here in NY State of giving us Higher Taxes & More Spending.
The NY GOP has ran away from their base of 2A Issues and All forms of Social Conservatism.
The NY GOP has Lost there way on the Principles of what Republicans are supposed to stand for.
The NY GOP forced down the throats of New Yorkers candidates like Jean Pirro, Bill Weld, Howard Mills & Rudy Guiliani…without consulting the voting public or the grass roots.
The NY GOP is clueless and deserves everything that is happening to them.
The NY GOP should have listen to me and the others who knew better.
Mr. Kelly, you are right on all counts, but your words fall on deaf ears. The Rockefeller Republicans (including the worthless George Pataki) have destroyed the GOP and left NY with a party without a dime’s worth of difference from the Dems. And you’re right that if Barclay wins, the Conservatives will be the margin of victory, as the so often are outside of counties where liberal Republicans predominate.