Kieran Lalor, a Peekskill Republican who wants to unseat Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains, had this to say about the war in Iraq and how it figures into his campaign.

“Most people say we (Republicans) lost the Congress last time because of the war. I put my life on the line there, I lost friends there, and if I didn’t believe American national security was at stake, I would be the first to say so. We as messengers are as important as the message.”

Westchester County Legislator George Oros, another Republican, also wants to take on Hall.

According to the website for the Ireland Chamber of Commerce in the United Sates, the presenting sponsor of this year’s St. Patrick’s Day Governor’s Breakfast is the insurance giant A.I.G (or the American International Group.)

Gov. Eliot Spitzer is listed on the website as the breakfast’s guest of honor. The event takes place at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel.

Yet it was Spitzer, as attorney general, who launched a major investigation into A.I.G. for improper accounting. And on Monday, five former insurance executives were found guilty in federal court of manipulating A.I.G.’s financial statements.

â€Å“The convictions demonstrate the underlying accuracy of the allegations we made years ago about fraudulent accounting and the conspiracy to mislead the market,” Spitzer said about the guilty verdicts, according to an account in the New York Times. “This conspiracy is not limited to those who were convicted today.”

It should make for an interesting St. Patrick’s Day breakfast.

UPDATE: Spitzer spokesman Errol Cockfield offered this statement:

“Each year the governor and other elected officials are invited to attend the annual St. Patrick’s Day breakfast hosted by the Ireland Chamber in the United States. The governor is always pleased to be among the membership of such a large and respected organization as New Yorkers celebrate St. Patrick’s Day. The governor’s office does not plan the annual St. Patrick’s Day breakfast and has no control over the Chamber’s choice of sponsors.”

The theory from Republicans in the state Senate today is that last night’s loss in the northern New York special election to Democrat Darrel Aubertine came down to the fact that voters simply like Aubertine more.

His ad that painted GOP opponent as the wealthy son of former Sen. Doug Barclay who wouldn’t let people fish on the family’s land was simply too much to overcome, some Republicans said privately.

“They were able to define him as an elitist rich kid wouldn’t let people fish in their river,” one GOP strategist said of Barclay.

Republicans were never able to counter the attack, and Aubertine was viewed as a local farmer trying to do good for the district.

“It was about the things going on in that district, primarily the economy,” Aubertine said after being sworn in at the Capitol this afternoon.

But Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno said Republicans still hold a one-seat majority and may have “lost that battle, but we are going to win the war” in November.

Democratic Minority Leader Malcolm Smith, though, predicted more Democratic victories in November.

“November ‘08 is a little ways off,” Smith said. “My best guess is that we’ll have the same numbers that we have now and most likely we’ll have two or three more.”

A decision from former Sen. Nicholas Spano about whether he will run is probably still a few weeks away. And the GOPs loss yesterday in the 48th Senate District — which trimmed the Republican majority to just two seats — doesn’t appear to be affecting his thought process.

“I said a few days ago that my decision is not about a Senate seat upstate,” Spano, a Yonkers Republican, said in an e-mail. “It is all about us in Westchester.

The global war on terror, Roger Clemens and HGH . . . it’s all part of a radio spot by Westchester County Legislator George Oros in his run for Congress. Oros and Kieran Lalor, another Republican, want to unseat Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains.

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A political firestorm is underway today at the state Capitol after Democrat Darrel Aubertine won the special election for a Senate seat in the North Country last night, lowering the Republican control to just a one-seat majority.

Aubertine had 27,901 votes, or 52 percent, to 25,345 votes for Republican Will Barclay, 48 percent, according to the Associated Press.

The results are a shock to Republicans, who talked yesterday with confidence that they’d win the seat and push forward in November. Senate Republicans now have a 32-30 lead over Democrats.

With Aubertine’s win, there are huge questions about what will happen to the state’s power structure:

Will Joe Bruno stay on as Senate majority leader? Or will someone like Binghamton Sen. Thomas Libous—an architect of Barclay’s race—or Long Island Sen. Dean Skelos replace him?

Will Gov. Spitzer and Democrats look to flip a Republican senator—giving them an even number in the chamber—and then look to approve a rule change that would take out Bruno and replace him with Democratic Minority Leader Malcolm Smith of Queens or Deputy Minority Leader Jeff Klein of the Bronx?

Will upstate be hurt, as Republicans contend, if Democrats control the Assembly, Senate and governor’s office with all downstate leaders?

Will Senate Republicans, especially many of their elderly members, retire rather than face a tough re-election battle this fall?

And will the Republican-controlled Senate, already at gridlock with Spitzer, have any chance of agreeing on policy measures and getting a budget approved by the April 1 deadline?

If Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign survives Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio and Texas with victories in both states, the road ahead won’t be easy.

The next big showdown would be April 22 in Pennsylvania.

A new poll released this morning shows her lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania has narrowed to to 6 points after she posted a 16 point edge two weeks ago.

The poll by Quinnipiac University found Clintion leading Obama among likely Democratic primary voters 49 percent to 43 percent compared to her 52 percent to 36 percent lead Feb. 14.

Clinton held an edge among women and whites while Obama led among men and blacks.

The big shift was young voters who moved from favoring Clinton by 51 percent to 41 percent to preferring Obama by 58 percent to 41 percent over the last two weeks.

“If Sen. Clinton survives next week to fight another day, Pennsylvania could become the last battleground of the long Democratic contest,’’ Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, stated in a press release.

The telehone survey of likely Democratic voters taken Thursday through Monday had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Because she recently loaned her presidential campaign $5 million, Hillary Rodham Clinton has been unde pressure to publicly release her joint income tax return so voters can find out the source of the money.

Clinton has promised to release the documents if she becomes the Democrats residential nominee. Pressed on the issue at tonight’s debate, she indicated it might be released even before she becomes the nominee.

But not before Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio and Texas. “I’m a little busy right now,’’ Clinton said. “I hardly have time to sleep.’’

When Hillary Rodham Clinton ran for Senate in 2000, she promised to bring 200,000 new jobs to upstate New York, NBC newsman Tim Russert reminded Clinton at tonight’s debate on MSNBC.

Russert, a native of Buffalo, quoted an estimate that upstate communities lost 30,000 instead.

She defended her plan to create 5 million new “green’’ jobs in alternative energy as doable if she is elected president. “I will have a lot more tools at my disposal,’’ she said.

On another issue important to upstate New York – the North American Free Trade Agreement – Clinton repeated her pledge to renegotiate the deal.

Asked if she would go as far as Obama and rescind the agreement, she said, “I will say we will opt out of NAFTA unless we renegotiate it.’’

Campaign attacks and a photo of Barack Obama in traditional Muslim clothing were intertwined in the opening exchange in tonight’s debate between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

Before either candidate spoke, MSNBC showed video of Clinton telling Obama she was honored to be with him at last Thursday’s debate followed by another clip of her saying “shame on you, Barack Obama’’ at a campaign event over the weekend because of what she described as a misleading and inaccurate campaign mailer.

The clips – often repeated on cable TV news shows in the last couple of days – drew laughter from the candidates and the audience.

“This is a contested campaign,’’ Clinton said in response.

Asked whether her campaign originated the photo of Obama that was posted on the Internet this week by The Drudge Report, Clinton said, “I certainly know nothing about it and have made clear that that’s not the kind of behavior that I condone or expect from the people working in my campaign.’’

Said Obama: “I take Senator Clinton at her word that she knew nothing about the photo. So I think that’s something that we can set aside.’’

The two candidates spent much of the next 15 minutes rehashing their differences on how to achieve universal health care.