Zogby Poll: Pennsylvania Primary Too Close To Call
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- April
- 17
Hillary Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania has evaporated, according to a Zogby poll out today.
With just five days left before the Democratic primary, Clinton and Barack Obama are in a race too close to call, the poll found.
The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday and during some of Wednesday’s nationally televised debate, shows Clinton at 45 percent and Obama at 44 percent, with 12 percent either wanting someone else or undecided.
The telephone poll included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
The poll found that Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh. Obama leads in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In central Pennsylvania, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.
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on Thursday, April 17th, 2008 at 2:43 pm by Joseph Spector.
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In the face of two polls, including a recent SurveyUSA poll, showing Clinton leading in the Keystone State by double digits—Zogby’s new poll shows Clinton and Obama (and we quote):
“Deadlocked in Pennsylvania!â€
When have you heard an (alleged) scientist announce his results in that manner?
Another reason to doubt the accuracy of this poll: 48 hours before the California primary on super-Tuesday Zogby had Obama winning by 10 points. But Obama lost to Clinton in California by 10 points—a 20 point spread. (Goolge, “California Results Expose Bad Polling”.)
On the other hand, SurveyUSA—who as of yesterday has Clinton leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 14 points—was one of the few pollsters to call the California primary election exactly right.
And then there is the fact that the Zogby poll was commissioned by NewsMax—a thinly disguised, anti-Clinton, Republican front tabloid.
Zogby polls are among the least reliable. SUSA is a much better polling outfit to follow.
zogby has a very poor record of predicting outcomes
whether this is becuase of his sampling technique or his
political bent is not capable of determination…but
either way it is the least reliable of all the polling operations
What does it matter? After last night’s performances, which were seen by eleven million people, McCain looks to be the sure winner unless he implodes.
Yesterday, there were questions about Stephanapolous’ participation because of his job in the Clinton White House. But he was fine, and so was Gibson. Good to see some tough questions and not a kiss-up fest. The answers were sometimes hilarious, seldom on the level, and sometimes just disingenuous.
This doesn’t make any sense. How can Clinton have a wide lead in western Pa., including the city of Pittsburgh, which Obama supposedly needs to do well, and in the central part of the state and Obama only leads in Philly … and the polls shows a dead heat? That doesn’t make any sense. If he’s losing Pittsburgh, the vote should be a blowout.
The Consultant is correct on this one. A New Yorker article profiled Zogby’s antiquated methods of polling. He has been the least accurate pollster the past three election cycles.
The pros both on the right and left look to Rasmussen for the most accurate data.
Too funny. Both Obama and Clinton are whining that ABC played too rough with their questions last night. That is just hilariously revealing about both of them.
Obama is also complaining that Hillary played dirty. Obama looks like he is a little…..kitten. Most know already what Hillary is.
the reason zogby is off all the time is that he
is a republican and his polling reflects his bias
MY FELLOW “BITTERâ€, STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE :-)
If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just a bunch of “BITTERâ€!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON FODDER. :-(
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)
Best regards
jacksmith… Working Class :-)
p.s. You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you don’t know that the huge amounts of money funding the Obama campaign to try and defeat Hillary Clinton is coming in from the insurance, and medical industry, that has been ripping you off, and killing you and your children. And denying you, and your loved ones the life saving medical care you needed. All just so they can make more huge immoral profits for them-selves off of your suffering…
You see, back in 1993 Hillary Clinton had the audacity, and nerve to try and get quality, affordable universal health care for everyone to prevent the suffering and needless deaths of hundreds of thousands of you each year. :-)
Approx. 100,000 of you die each year from medical accidents from a rush to profit by the insurance, and medical industry. Another 120,000 of you die each year from treatable illness that people in other developed countries don’t die from. And I could go on, and on…
DON’T BE DUPED !!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. With Hillary Clinton you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem†(harvest the day).
I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty for all. She’s a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-selves, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.
You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don’t want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more immoral profits for them-selves.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama’s primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.
Hillary Clinton has been OUT MANNED! OUT GUNNED! and OUT SPENT! 4 and 5 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.
“This is not a game†(Hillary Clinton)
Sincerely
jacksmith… Working Class :-)
OPERATION CHAOS?
ALL THAT COUNTS IS THE FOLLOWING TAKEN FROM REAL CLEAR
POLITICS.COM
MCCAIN VS OBAMA VS CLINTON
Pennsylvania Obama +2.2 Clinton +6.2
Ohio McCain +5.2 Clinton +2.8
Florida McCain +11.7 McCain +0.3
Wisconsin Obama +2.0 McCain +4.7
HOW IS THE DEMOCRAT SUPPOSED TO WIN WITHOUT
EITHER OHIO OR FLORIDA..
I think the answer is that the Democrat will not win.
Obama will be done in by his inexperience, his shifting stories and explanations, his and his wife’s far-left beliefs and allies, his close ties to Jeremiah Wright, and by the likes of former Weathermen bomber William Ayers and other issues that will surface between now and November.
By the way, Ayers, who is not sorry for what he did, is married to Bernadine Dohrn, another Weathermen terrorist.
Rev. Wright is now moving into a 10,000 square-foot mansion next to a golf course—and with a $10 million line of credit that goes with it. All from his church. He is another hypocrite who has benefited from his hatred. Obama gave $26,000 to Wright’s church just last year.
Bill Clinton did commute the sentences of two Weathermen, and he also commuted the sentences of a number of the FALN bombers—the Puerto Rican terrorist group who did a lot of damage in the U.S.
Speaking of Ayers, here’s an excerpt from a fact-checking article from the AP that I found on the Fox News site…
“Clinton’s implication that Ayers made hurtful comments connected with the terrorist attacks is wrong.
By coincidence, a story about Ayers and what he called his fictionalized memoirs appeared in The New York Times on the day of the attacks.
The story was based on an interview he had done earlier, in Chicago, in which he declared, “I don’t regret setting bombs,†and “I feel we didn’t do enough,†even while seeming to dissociate himself coyly from the group’s most destructive acts.
Clinton is correct that both men served together on the board of the Woods Fund, a Chicago-based charity that develops community groups to help the poor. Ayers joined the board in 1999 and is still on it. Obama left it in December 2002 after nine years.
Ayers was clearly more than someone Obama just ran into in the neighborhood on occasion. In the mid-1990s, when Obama was making his first run for the Illinois Senate, Ayers had Obama to his home to introduce him to others.
But a flub by Obama in the debate suggested he does not know him that well: He called Ayers an English professor. Ayers teaches education at the University of Illinois at Chicago and has been an education adviser to Mayor Richard Daley.
Ayers disappeared after the 1970 town house explosion, although he was not charged in that episode. He and his wife, Bernadine Dohrn, surfaced in 1980.
They both faced charges stemming from Chicago demonstrations in 1969 but his were dismissed for prosecutorial misconduct while she pleaded guilty to aggravated battery and bail-jumping.”
walt..you may be right or (wright) as the case may be
but to those who will be viewing a MCain 60 second spot on the subject in the swing states it won’t matter what the
explanation is…that is what you are overlooking …only
28% of Americans have a high school diploma..so whether
Obama knew him well, or only casually he knew him
and served on a board with him….
the consultant wrote, “the reason zogby is off all the time is that he is a republican and his polling reflects his bias.”
Actually, Zogby despite occassionally doing some consulting work for Republicans is a Democrat as his brother, Jim, who is an Executive Committee of the DNC.
From Zogby’s own website:
I’ve heard so many conflicting stories – is Zogby International a Republican pollster, a Democratic pollster or an Independent pollster?
JZ: “We are independent and nonpartisan. I am personally a Democrat, but the firm does a lot of work for media (like Reuters America, New York Post, St. Louis Post Dispatch, etc.) and we work for both parties.”
I would add the link but for some reason this blog has trouble posting comments with links.
Zogby’s polling methods and not his party affiliation (Scott Rasmussen is a Republican and his polling is very accurate) are the problem. From 1992-2000, he was probably the best in the business. Now, he is living on name alone.
It would be nice if the Consultant fact-checked.
Walt, the better question is how Ayers has a tenured faculty position. He avoided prison only because of prosecutorial misconduct yet Mr. Ayers has obtained a fairly coveted position in academia. That says a lot about the current state of academia in which people with radical left views will get hired and obtain tenure but those with very respected conservative credentials are either not hired in the first place or denied tenure later on.
Not just Ayers. His wife, his fellow Weather Underground member Bernadine Dohrn, is an associate law professor at Northwestern.
Consultant, I think your 28 percent figure is for college grads. The high school grad percentage is much higher. But going by the poor quality of most TV programming and advertising, you’d never know it.
Speaking of education, an interesting tidbit from Gallup-
“Barack Obama leads John McCain by a significant margin among voters with the most education, but trails the likely Republican nominee among voters with the least formal education.”
McCain is polling ahead of Obama among those with a HS education or less. Both are about even among those with some college, or a bachelor’s degree. Obama is ahead among those with grad and post-grad degrees.
Even more interestingly, Clinton only does better than McCain among those with just HS diplomas or less. McCain has only a small edge in the other 3 categories, though.
BTW, Mike, the latest Census figures put HS grads at 80% of the population. Out of those, 21% with some college, but no degree, 15.5% with just a Bachelor’s, and about 9% with Graduate and Post-grad degrees.