Q poll: Obama leading McCain
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- July
- 15
Highlights of today’s national presidential poll from Quinnipiac University:
• Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 – 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain.
• Independent voters split 44 – 44 percent. McCain has a slight 47 – 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 – 42 percent lead among white voters.
• Black voters back Obama 94 – 1 percent, while women support him 55 – 36 percent. Obama leads 63 – 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split, with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.
• By a 55 – 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama.  McCain gets a 50 – 31 percent favorability.
• A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are “entirely comfortable†or “somewhat comfortable†having a black President, but 9 percent are “somewhat uncomfortable†or “entirely uncomfortable.â€Â And 86 percent say Obama’s race won’t affect their vote.
• A total of 64 percent of voters say they are “entirely comfortable†or “somewhat comfortable†with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are “somewhat uncomfortable†or “entirely uncomfortable.â€
• The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.
The poll of 1,725 voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 at 11:36 am by Liz Anderson.
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national polls at this point before the conventions
and without the VEEP picks are absolutely meaningless
Something else. Most polls show the race is now a virtual tie. But, to no one’s surprise, the Journal News posts this one.
Wahoo..you want to have some fun..go to realpolitics.com
there is a map you can customized.ie you can make mccain
or obama or leaning either one..and count the electoral
votes up for yourself….they also have the composite
of the most recent state by state polls..when i did
it they both had 238…with the balance toss up…
i think this will be very very close…thats why
McCain will put Romney on the ticket ..he has to win
Michigan…and I beleive Obama will put Bayh on the
ticket..he wants Indiana and Ohio
Fact is, any Democratic candidate should be ahead by 15 points at this time considering all the current news. The fact that he isn’t speaks volumes.
That is quite true..but it is a state by state hand to
hand combat….and Obama’s lead shrinks by the day
Correct…...State by State…
Thank God for Rednecks, Guns, Cowboys and the Religious Right…..
Likely voters polling closer then you think. Do listen to the TV talking heads. They still think Rudy will be President.
Rudy who? The walk-on at Notre Dame?
Yeah. Same guy. Good movie too. Or maybe it is Rudy Vallee or Rudy the Red-Nosed Reindeer. It can’t be Rudy Hess.
You know Mayor Rudy…..Sean Hannity & George Will and other clueless talking heads who swore Rudy was going to be President.
They should have listen to the insiders and not embarrassed themselves.
Careful – he just may be Governor Rudy in the not too distant future. And he still has the State Police. The resurrection of Bernie Kerik? Unlikely. He’ll probably be a very inconspicuous patronage lieutenant and unofficial gatekeeper. How is it that all these one-time chauffeur/bodyguards for pols jump everyone and become appointed Commissioners of this and that? Sigmund?
george will is hardly clueless..he is a brilliant conservative thinker who is balanced…he is not
a new york conservative…farther right than
right….he is a heartland conservative….closer
to a libertarian which if the republican party
would emulate they would be a lot better off
Lets get real here. I know some of the “Insiders” of State and National politics (Besides local yokel politics)
The biggest joke in Washington & with the on pulse pollers …..Is when George Will, John Fund and Sean Hannity start picking the winners and jumping on board with their candidates….....that means…...
You can then start to throw your money and jumping on board to the other candidates!
The three of them are CLUELESS in picking candidates…......Combined they are something like 0-12 or even worse on picking the right candidate in recent National & State elections.
In fact, the three of them prove this fact – The three of them are on record of talking up, writing columns about and endorsing candidates. All three are on the record as doing so, check it out for yourself.
On a serious note, I am not saying Will & Fund are Clueless in their targeted field of expertise,....... But what insiders will tell you they are Clueless on inside politics.
Hannity is about Hannity and is the most clueless and a joke within circles. Again verification on all their predictions & endorsements are on the record!
Do not always listen to the talking heads as many are ill informed & advised by other clueless people…They just put their face on TV to collect a paycheck.
Do listen to Chuck Todd & Pat Buchanan as they eat dinners with the right guys and know the true score. George J. Marlin is another inside New Yorker (NY Post & Author) who also has key information.
A number of points:
Chuck Todd, is a fairly knowledgable political analyst but his last appearance on MTP left a lot to be desired. Democrats haven’t been winning in Montana because of their increasing libertarianism but because they have developed a populist economic agenda, while conceding on a few cultural issues. Todd, was wrong and seemed to be recycling inside the beltway garbage. That said, I would take Chuck Todd is the best person at NBC.
Buchanan has a much greater agenda to push than almost any analyst out there i.e. greater social conservatism at home and less intervention abroad. George Will, is a decent writer but a poor political prognasticator and he is far too obsessed with campaign finance reform than any one person should be.
That said neither Hannity nor Will claimed that Giuliani would be the next President. Other than a few posters on this blog, most recognized that Giuliani was a longshot and were just surprised that Giuliani was leading in polls for so long.
IF you want the most accurate polling data go to Rasmussen, if you want the most accurate political analysis listen to Michael Barone or Charlie Cook.
Jim, yoou make a number of dubious claims.
Can you please give us quotes from Hannity, Will, or Fund where they said Giuliani was going to be President? Most of their columns are readily available and I find no evidence to support your assertion. Hannity, happened to like Giuliani (although Hannity was mainly in the category of anybody but McCain) but I don’t think he ever predicted that Giuliani would win. Fund, wasn’t particularly sympathetic to Giuliani and Will said some nice things about Giuliani’s tenure as Mayor.
NO ENDORSEMENTS and NO PREDICTIONS OF VICTORY.
Soundbites…...soundbites…..
Yes, They were ALL sympathetic ….
ALL were on one show or another using code words or leading & predicting …..”I believe,” “If I had to pick a candidate today,” “Why I believe this will happen” etc…. (Did they say “I predict…NO)
Better yet, I KNOW these guys were working other columnist or talking heads for their choice candidate.
You got to understand that most of these guys have dinner, attend the same Christmas Party or travel the same old circles week in week out. That is why they write these “Opinionated Articles” – “Opinionated Comments” – (Predictions no, Coded words for their candidates, YES, they know better to go the full boat…But they believe it will happen)
They get sold a bill of goods all the time because of the SAME circles week in week out.
On this same matter, I attend a Christmas Party with a small group of these writers and talking heads every year in Manhattan. Nice guys & gals for sure, but they are “Buffalo-ed” in thought by these same circles they travel.
Most of these people swore KT McFarland, Bill Weld and Ed Cox would be serious contenders in their races. Races…. I remind you never happened. These people don’t travel the State to meet the leaders, they just travel from one cocktail party to another cocktail party in Manhattan.
Okay, than please put find the soundbites and cut and paste them on this blog. There is no record that I can find of any of the columnists predicting victory for Giuliani nor endorsing him (even including caveats). Hannity, did endorse Romney not Giuliani in January.
If you can prove otherwise, than by all means, do so. You are correct that many talking heads are part of an insular group and don’t get out much. However, the media personalities that you mentioned i.e. Hannity, Fund, and Will do not live or travel in the same circles, literally or figuratively. Moreover, none of the talking heads that you specifically mentioned are active in discussing New York politics. It appears that you have a gripe (perhaps legitimate) that a lot of the right-of-center establishment encouraged KT McFarland to challenge your candidate, John Spencer. I think they were right to do so as Spencer’s personal issues made him unelectable but regardless you can’t compare what a view people that you know in New York metro area do to make a very dubious claim, which thus far you have provided no evidence to substantiate.
meant to say “few people”
Jim has to understand that talking heads are in the entertainment business first …they are paid to render
their opinions and their opinions change based on
the “facts on the ground” Conservatives like Rush
have the biggest agenda…they have made sure the
republican party is perceived as insensitive to the
needs of the average working american (see the
recent rants of Dr, Phil Gramm) they have shown that
foreign policy is based on necon propaganda not
the facts..they have demonstrated that they are intolerant
of others whose lifestyle differs from their own..
that is why the party is loosing its way…now that
is a totally different discussion than whether the
first african american nominee can get elected ..
I believe that the middle ie independents will determine
the election…they will either decide to take a chance,
a roll of the dice with a guy who has little foreign
policy experience, little national economic experience
and has recently come upon the national stage..or
a candidate who may be not so conservative as he says
but is clearly pro winning the war..whatever the cost
a man from arizona who has disagreed with his party
on many issues, who may or may not have a short temper
and who may or may not be a little over the hill in
terms of executive ability..those are the choices..and
in the end you can watch a handful of states to
see who has the edge..florida, nevada, michigan,Indiana
Ohio, Pa, Virginia, new mexico, Iowa and new Hampshire
after that we know what states are blue and what states
are red
why is the number one concern the economy. fearless fosdick at the white house says everything is hunky dory and just give him a drill bit and the world will be peachy keen.