Harris Poll: Obama Has Nine-Point Lead Over McCain
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- July
- 21
The Rochester-based Harris Poll put out a presidential poll today that shows Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters.
The poll also included third-party candidates: Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, and Ralph Nader each receive 2 percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters were undecided.
Other findings in the poll:—McCain is holding onto his base a little better than Obama. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans say they will vote for him, versus 74 percent of Democrats for Obama.—Among independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%).—Half of seniors (those over 63) say they would vote for McCain, while 29% would vote for Obama.—51 percent of those aged 18-31 would vote for Obama, while 24% would vote for McCain;—90 percent of African Americans would vote for Obama, as would 60 percent of Hispanics. Whites, however, are leaning towards McCain, 40% versus 34%.
Harris does online polling. The poll questioned 2,690 U.S. adults between July 3 and 11.
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on Monday, July 21st, 2008 at 10:08 am by Joseph Spector.
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this head to head national polling is really not
relevant..what is relevant is the state by state
numbers..it is quite conceivable that obama could
win the popular vote and loose the electoral college
TAKEN FROM CLIVE CROOK’S ANALYSIS
Note that if you do, science is on your side. Alan Abramowitz, a politics scholar at Emory University, has shown that summer head-to-head polls convey almost no information about the forthcoming election. (Subsequent head-to-head polls are not much better.) Instead, he has a simple “electoral barometer†that weighs together the approval rating of the incumbent president, the economy’s economic growth rate and whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms (the “time for a change†factor). This laughably simple metric has correctly forecast the winner of the popular vote in 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections.
The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a wafer-thin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point. The barometer not only picks winners but pretty accurately points to winning margins, too. In 1980, Jimmy Carter had the biggest postwar negative reading (–66); Ronald Reagan beat him by nearly 10 percentage points.
President George W. Bush’s net approval rating (favourable minus unfavourable) is currently –40; the economy grew at a 1 per cent annual rate in the first quarter; and Republicans have had two terms in the White House. Plugging the numbers into Mr Abramowitz’s formula gives the Republican candidate a score of –60, about as bad as it gets: second only to Mr Carter’s in the annals of doomed postwar candidacies. The barometer says Mr Obama is going to waltz to victory.
NOT A VERY GOOD SIGN FOR REPUBLCIANS IS IT?
Did anyone catch the debate between Assemblyman Greg Ball and the failed former Brewster Mayor John Degnan?
At the debate, Degnan continued to deliver his slanderous attacks against Ball’s service to our country. Degnan has really gone over the top this time. He should be ashamed of himself for spreading such awful, false, lies. Check out this youtube of the debate http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t77Gh_Cn6H4
Agreed that a national poll doesn’t show how things will play with the Electoral College.
Another poll that I found interesting- More Jewish voters prefer Obama to Joe Lieberman. “Only 37 percent of Jews view the Connecticut Independent in a favorable light compared to 48 percent who have a negative perception. As for Obama, 60 percent of Jews view him favorably while 34 percent view him unfavorably.”
Who’s that guy that Lieberman is always hanging out with? Oh yeah, John “I can’t keep Sunni and Shia straght” McCain…