Just look at the polls that count for real.

These are the same stupid polls that said Rudy was “Clear Favorite” to be President for the GOP. (I signed my name to blogs across the State of NY and told many in the NY GOP they were nuts to think so!)

The same dumb talking heads who drink and eat in the SAME circles day in and day out ….Same talking heads who attend the same cocktail parties.

Regarding polls: There are Registered Voters, Likely Voters, Positively without doubt I Voting Voters categories….....

There are also polls that are being taken in the Swing States (Which is all I care about) (Electoral College)

I tell you what,...... I see upsetment coming for the Liberal Talking heads. They are throwing the kitchen sink at the VP and it is going to back fire!

Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns

Personally, and for what it’s worth, I also put much more stock in polls that survey “likely voters,” like Rasmussen does, rather than just registered voters.

I was off by one percent. I told you no major bounce for Obama. Trust the inter poll on that, Rems poll.

Trust me I have seven people in the McCain Camp. We are doing fine at this point – give it time.

Give the “Underground” time to finish working.

Obama’s bounce smaller than others David Paul Kuhn
Mon Sep 1, 10:38 PM ET

Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it’s gradually depreciating.

The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That’s a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.

That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.

Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.

On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.

CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.

But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.

There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.

Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.

National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8
Monday, September 01

THIS IS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO EXCEEDING 50% FOR THE DEMOCRATS
LETS HOPE THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION CAN REVERSE THE TREND
AND PULL THE RACE BACK FROM THE BRINK..ONCE IT GOES OVER
50%...ITS TROUBLE

You are right about Palin dominating the news cycle. One should remember the adage from Madison Avenue, that any publicity is good publicity. The fact is that Obama is not dominating the news cycle, and that is not good news for the dems.

There is a smaller that normal bump for Obama, and that seems to be dwindling as we speak. McCain has an opportunity to gain his bump, let’s see if he can. I am betting his is doing a jig in celebration of Bush and Cheney “not being able to attend”.

non

I also found the Fox News swipe to be unnecessary and inaccurate. MSNBC’s roundtable consists of Olbermann, Matthews, Maddow, and Mitchell with some occasional input from Buchanan or Scarborough. There is not a single Bush supporter or Republican. Buchanan, left the party (it would be like having Nader on the air) and agrees with the Democrats on war and trade. Scarborough, didn’t support Republicans in 2006 and declares himself an independent now. Fox, has some partisan Republicans but plenty of Democrats as well including people like Greta Van Susteren and Howard Wolfson.

Some may want to check out the http://www.nypost.com editorial about Joe Biden today, under the Opinion section. It’s titled “Iran’s Most Useful Idiot?” That October 2001 New Republic article they refer to is still available on line.

Tim, you are becoming like Jekyl and Hyde. One moment you claim to be a Reagan-Republican, the next a libertarian Republican, the next a country-club Republican, and finally an Obama-supporter without much of a rationale for the change.

I also fail to see how George W. Bush “corrupted” our country after the Clinton years or how Democrats are better for business. Neither Bush nor Cheney has been accused of accepting bribes or selling out the Lincoln bedroom. You may not like the President’s policies but that hardly makes him corrupt and I hardly think that someone who graduates from Yale and Harvard (regardless of legacy) is an ignoramus. He is just a bad public speaker as was his father.

It is difficult to measure how the economy would have performed with a member of the different party in power i.e. Clinton was blessed with a pretty good set of circumstances and traditionally business prefers Republicans.

This is why most in downstate New York do not have a pulse on National & State Politics.

This is why the State GOP is in trouble. They too have gained to much “Albany Tunnel Vision”

There is more, much more grass roots GOP in New York State (Southern Tier, Adirondacks, Central NY & WNY)

Many now agree focus should head upstate for the GOP.

If Palin delivers a good speech, this will all go away in a hearbeat. Her daughter’s pregnancy is a non-issue, anyway. It’s a family matter.

The left-wing Dems will overplay their hand, as usual. This matter of Palin’s daughter will blow up in their faces, not McCain’s. Walt Trombone, for one, wrote a hideous false smear on this blog on August 31. Read it above. He called it “rumor.” It was a smear from the far-left blogs.

I see the Consultant is up to his usual snootiness, referring to “beer drinking states.” He sounds just like Obama did in dissing small towns before the Pa. primary.

As for the trooper matter, that was in the Alaska papers long before McCain selected Palin. Her response to that is well-known, and she does have enemies in Alaska who would like to get her—not only Democrats, but also the corrupt Republicans she took on and defeaated.

Tuesday, September 02
Race Poll Results Spread
National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8

Monday, September 01
Race Poll Results Spread
National CNN Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1
National Gallup Tracking Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
National CNN Obama 46, McCain 44 Obama +2

Let’s not that Obama stole a great deal of Mass Governor Deval Patrick’s speeches.

non

But the Consultant, a pseudo-Republican, has spent more time denigrating Palin than he has going after that plagarist know-nothing who was against the Surge and who also wanted to turn Iraq into three countries—Biden. He also has not gone after that other empty suit with the bad friends —Obama. He’d rather go after Sarah Palin. That’s why I get annoyed at the Consultant.

He is the embodiment of the snooty, elitist, liberal country club Republican. He also has been in a snit ever since his guy Giuliani ran perhaps the worst campaign in history. And the Consultant also dislikes Conservative Republicans. He almost belongs with the Obama camp. They all can go to Jeremiah Wright’s “church” together for the next 20 years.

Or….maybe Sarah Palin can just take the Consultant hunting. She’s definitely much better at it than Cheney is.

Mmmm..I do a great “When You Wish Upon A Star,” by Jiminy.

I don’t believe that Gov. Palin’s 17 year-old daughter hurts us deeply. We have long been called the party of the elite. We now have a VP Candidate who has a middle-class upbringing and is experiencing what a number of families are going through.

Sometimes voters, want real-life people who go through what they themselves go through in daily life, to be in office-because the candidates understand their challenges.

Nonaubiz answered the Consultant very well. The Consultant can’t help himself, because the air is very rare up on that cloud he thinks he lives on.

You are not presenting yourself well these days, Consultant. Or maybe, it’s just that the real you is coming out more and more.

Tim Hays—if you support Sarah from Alaska you could revive the Bull Moose Party. And if anyone supports the Consultant, they can start another kind of “Bull” party.

It shows that she is just like millions of other American families with real problems that require real solutions. At the very least the daughter, like her mother has elected to have the child and that is a mature decision that she clearly made before her mother was selected as the Republican VP candidate.

This family is living their beliefs, with the same failures that all God’s children are guilty of. I have no qualms about this and if anything it might even help, not hurt.

non

PS on a completely different note do you think (as I do) that a certain sleaze-ball lawyer has told his even sleazier client to stfu?

PPS Did you notice that all the zombies are also silent? What a coincidence!

Perhaps I would have been a Whig, circa 1840.

But no: over the last 30 years, I am simply an assumption-challenging Republican. No more, no less.

I like Main Street, and I enjoy the Country Club, too, on occasion.

Your drift is succinct.

Mainly: I disdain corruption, and hypocrytical politicians. Call me a “scold.” It rings right.