Politics on the Hudson

The Associated Press did a fact check on it, and they also have a poll out that shows Obama leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is tied with John McCain in two other red states.

Even still, Obama  pulled out all political and technological stops Wednesday while McCain was working Florida and calling him unqualified.

Four state Senate incumbents, including two in western New York and one in Westchester County, are maintaining sizeable leads against their opponents just days before Election Day, a Siena Poll today found.

Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, D-Mamaroneck, Westchester County, has a whopping 35 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger, Liz Feld. The poll showed the 11-term incumbent with a 64 percent to 29 percent lead over Feld, mayor of Larchmont, down slightly from 61 percent to 24 percent lead in a Siena poll earlier this month.

“Given Oppenheimer’s advantage in favorability, the district’s large Democratic enrollment edge, and the support for (Barack) Obama within the district, Feld appears to be headed for defeat,” said Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg.

Updated: Feld’s spokesman William O’Reilly responded: “Are they sure they’re polling the right district? This is the 37th, home of the highest property taxes and lowest state school aid in America. Everyone we talk to is fed up and ready to make a change.”

Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, Monroe County, has expanded his lead against Democrat Richard Dollinger to 52 percent to 39 percent, edging up from an 11-percentage-point advantage last month, Siena found.

Robach, a former Democrat, is holding his lead despite major investment by Democrats into Dollinger, who held the seat before Robach, in a heavily Democratic district. The Siena poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with a 29 percentage-point lead over Republican candidate John McCain in the district, which includes most of the city of Rochester.

“Senator Robach has strong support among Republicans and independent voters, as well as the support of more than one-third of Democrats,” Greenberg said. “He enters the final week of the campaign in a strong position.”

The Albany-based Siena has been polling the most competitive state Senate races in recent weeks as Republicans seek to maintain their slim majority. With a 31-29 seat majority, Republicans have been trying to fend off challenges from Democrats in races across the state, likely making the campaigns the most expensive in state history.

The college expects to release another set of polls on other tightly contested races over the weekend. Election Day is Tuesday.

Siena today also polled the re-election bid of Sen. Dale Volker, R-Depew, Erie County, against Democrat Kathy Konst in a district that runs across western New York into Livingston and Ontario counties. Volker has a 50 percent to 39 percent lead, though Konst has gained six percentage points since the last Siena poll – making it the closest of the four races polled by Siena today.

In a critical Long Island race, Democratic Sen. Craig Johnson has a 50 percent to 35 percent lead over Republican Plandome Manor Mayor Barbara Donno. A poll last month showed Johnson, who won the seat in a special election in 2007 after then-Republican Sen. Michael Balboni joined the then-Spitzer administration, with a 49 percent to 25 percent lead.

The polls were conducted in each Senate district from Oct. 27-29 to about 400 registered voters. Each poll had a margin of error of about 4.8 percent.

Siena College is back out in the field polling contested Senate races with less than a week before the elections and will release a new poll tomorrow.

This time, they are doing second polls on:
—7th District: Sen. Craig Johnson, D-Nassau County, versus Republican Plandome Manor Mayor Barbara Donno
—37th District: Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, D-Mamaroneck, Westchester County, versus 12-term incumbent Republican Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld.
—56th District: Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, Monroe County, versus Democrat Richard Dollinger, who preceded Robach in the Senate.
—59th District: Sen. Dale Volker, R-Depew, Erie County, versus Democratic candidate Kathy Konst.

Republicans are still putting a lot of money behind Donno, even though a Siena poll a month ago showed Johnson with a 24-percentage-point lead.

Republicans have also put about $250,000 in Volker’s campaign in recent weeks, even though the same Siena poll showed him earlier this month with a 17-point lead.

Siena showed Oppenheimer with a 61-24 percent lead earlier this month, and had Robach with an 11-point lead.

So Siena may be staying away from some of potentially tighter races: such as Trunzo-Foley on Long Island, Maltese-Addabbo in Queens, Aubertine-Renzi in the North Country, Stachowski-Delano in Buffalo and Ranzenhofer-Mesi in western New York.

Updated: Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg called in to say that these races won’t be the last of them. Siena is going out in the field on some of the other races over the next few days and will likely release new numbers over the weekend, he said.

New Yorkers Against Gun Violence and GunFreeKids.org, are both expected to endorse democratic senators Suzi Oppenheimer and Andrea Stewart-Cousins in their re-election campaigns today.

Oppenheimer is running against Larchmont Republican mayor Liz Feld in the state’s 37th district and Stewart Cousins is running against Yonkers Republican councilman John Murtagh in the 35th district.

The anti-gun groups issued a joint statement about the two democratic candidates saying “For almost a decade, the leadership in the State Senate has blocked passage of common sense gun legislation. The success of these two re-election campaigns are a critical component to ensuring the Senate acts to pass important bills in the near future, including, micro-stamping and improved regulations on gun dealers.”

UPDATE: On an unrelated note, Liz Feld’s campaign today announced they have picked up the endorsement of Joseph Delfino, the Republican mayor of White Plains. Delfino is expected to give the endorsement at White Plains City Hall at noon on Thursday.

Gov. Paterson testified this morning at a congressional hearing, saying that the federal government should increase spending on health care, transportation projects, food stamps and unemployment benefits to help New York and other states recover from the economic slump.

“We are cutting all we can,” Paterson said to the House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by his friend and neighbor, Rep. Charles Rangel, D-Harlem. “But the deficit is too voluminous for us to address.”

Paterson announced Tuesday that the state is facing a $1.5 billion budget gap for the fiscal year that ends March 31; $12.5 billion for the next fiscal year and $47 billion over the next three years.

The Democratic governor kicked off testimony by several governors before the panel, which is considering whether to approve a stimulus package to try to get the national economy moving.

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford followed Paterson and warned House members against spending more to bail out states, many of which he said hadn’t controlled their spending. The Republican governor said it doesn’t make sense to borrow “more to deal with a problem that was ultimately created by excessive borrowing.”

Paterson recognized that “We have in many respects mismanaged and need to put our own houses in order by cutting spending.”

But he continued that since the economic swoon was caused by the national sub-prime mortgage crisis, it “needs to be addressed holistically by the federal government investing in the states.”

New York has 40 road-and bridge projects and another 50 water projects “ready to go,” Paterson said, but doesn’t have the money to pay for them. He said paying for those would be a good investment for Washington to make.

The Legislature is due to return to the Capitol on Nov. 18 to consider Paterson’s plan to cut $2 billion in spending.

He has asked legislative leaders to come up with ideas to reduce spending by Nov. 7.

But Senate Republicans say it’s up to Paterson to make proposals first.

“We think it’s clear it’s his responsibility,” said Scott Reif, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, R-Nassau County.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is campaigning today for western New York congressional candidates with stops in Rochester and Buffalo later in the day and this morning in Utica for Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri.

She’s also the special guest at a Monroe County Democrats dinner in Rochester.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, meanwhile, is in the Capital region later today to endorse Republican Sandy Treadwell for Congress and campaign with him in Saratoga and Warren counties. Treadwell is facing incumbent Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, which appears to be the most expensive House race in the country.

Later in the week, Clinton will travel to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia on behalf of the Obama-Biden ticket. Her campaign office said she will be visiting Kentucky for Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford.

President Clinton, meanwhile, is heading to Pennsylvania and Florida and attending a rally with Obama in Orlando. On Thursday, President Clinton will be in Youngstown and Toledo in Ohio, then in Minnesota for Senate candidate Al Franken, who Hillary Clinton has also been helping.

(AP photos)

Updated: Here’s video of Hillary Clinton rallying for Sen. Bill Stachowski in Buffalo earlier today.

Actress Ruby Dee will kick off a rally for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama at 2 p.m. on Saturday at New Rochelle City Hall.

The longtime New Rochelle resident was nominated for an Academy Award last year for her role in the film American Gangster and is a legend for her civil rights activism.

New Rochelle mayor Noam Bramson will also speak. Following the rally, the crowd will march down North Avenue in support for Obama for what organizers have dubbed as a “Parade for Change.”

A Quinnipiac Poll shows the race for president tightening in Ohio and Pennsylvania, with Florida now too close to call. Sounds familiar.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of those three swing states.

Latest results:—Florida: Barack Obama 47 percent to John McCain’s 45 percent, compared to 49 percent to 44 percent October 23;—Ohio: Obama up 51 percent to 42 percent, compared to 52 percent to 38 percent.—Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 percent to 41 percent, compared to 53 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, the sides have new ads out this morning in advance of Obama’s infomercial tonight.

McCain’s ad says that “Behind the fancy speeches, grand promises and TV special, lies the truth: With crises at home and abroad, Barack Obama lacks the experience America needs. And it shows. His response to our economic crisis is to spend and tax our economy deeper into recession. The fact is Barack Obama’s not ready yet.”

Obama’s ad offers McCain in his own words on the economy, such as “I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues.  I still need to be educated.”

Then it ends with his quote “I might have to rely on a vice president that I select” and the words “His choice?” followed by showing a winking Sarah Palin.

     A New York City-based group that usually backs Democrats announced today it is backing Republican incumbent Frank Padavan in a hotly contested seat in Queens.

Citizens Union also is supporting Democratic challenger Joseph Addabbo in another tight Queens race over long-time Republican Sen. Serph Maltese.

The group cited Padavan’s “long-held support for much of the Citizen Union reform agenda and effective representation in Albany.’’

Democrats are within two seats of capturing the majority in the Senate for the first time since 1965. The two Queens seats, both of which have thousands more Democratic than Republicans, are among the best chances the Dems have of picking up the seats they need to gain the majority.

Democrats already control four of the five Senate districts covering Westchester and Putnam, but Republicans are making spirited runs at Sens. Suzi Oppenheimer of Mamaroneck  and Andrea Stewart Cousins of Yonkers.

   The mid-year update to the state budget makes some changes in estimated costs for 2009-10. In most cases, programs will be more expensive to operate, according to the financial plan. Examples include:

  —Higher projected school-aid costs of $13 million. The increase is primarily being driven by growth in building aid and excess cost aid for special education.

  —Less state Lottery money available for education. New games offered this year have not performed as well as expected.

  —The state’s share of child welfare services is expected to grow by $31 million because of projected growth in local child-welfare claims. The state pays 63.7 percent of certain services.

  —The cost-of-living allowance increase for human-services workers will cost $35 million more than expected because the 12-month consumer-price increase the raises are based on is 5.6 percent, not 3.5 percent as originally estimated.

  —Projected health-insurance costs for state employees and retirees have been reduced by about $100 million.

  —State University of New York and City University of New York community colleges will cost $28 million more than expected in 2009-10 because of growth in enrollment projections.

  —New laws passed this year are expected to add $1.7 million this year and $3.2 million in the future, including legislation that requires crisis-intervention and community services for sexually exploited youth; the creation of a statewide cancer-incidence map; and setting up guidelines to prevent “over-concentration” of sex offenders in communities.