Politics on the Hudson

   State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli appears to agree with Gov. David Paterson that the state will have to reduce spending next year to deal with New York’s fiscal crisis. Here’s what DiNapoli has to say about the Mid-Year Financial Plan, which the governor released today. The governor said the state has to cut 25 percent of its spending supported by taxes next year.

   DiNapoli’s statement today:

   “New York State is facing staggering budget shortfalls. State revenues are dropping off and the markets’ errtic swings continue. The economic turmoil is driving New York into a very deep budget hole. And our past use of fiscal gimmicks has made the state’s financial situation even worse.

   “The consequences of the fiscal crisis haven’t fully played out yet. We need to assess what we can afford, and make sure we don’t keep spending money we don’t have.”

Democrats are so concerned about losing Democratic Sen. Bill Stachowski in Buffalo that even former President Clinton is stumping for him as Stachowski seeks to hold off Republican challenger Dennis Delano.

A Siena poll showed Delano with a big lead, and Republicans still feel confident that they’ll win the seat.

Clinton cut a robocall for Stachowski, saying “western New York needs strong Democrats like Bill Stachowski fighting for us and working to keep good jobs here.”

You can listen to it here.

Marist College’s new New York poll today found that voters have an increasingly higher approval of Gov. Paterson, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hit a record high in popularity.

For Paterson, 57 percent of New York voters have “a positive impression of how he is running the state.” Yesterday, Siena put Paterson’s favorability at 62 percent.

For Clinton, after her failed run for president, Marist said that 62 percent of New Yorkers say she is doing either an excellent or good job—her highest numbers from Marist since she took office in 2001. Also, one-quarter of the state’s electorate rate the job she is doing as excellent, her highest to date.

Other highlights:
—New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg beats Paterson in a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup in 2010, 50 percent to 39 percent. Still, Bloomberg has insisted he’s focused on running for a third term next year and has no plans to run for governor. But in a Marist Poll in April, they were in a dead heat. Paterson would beat former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 51 percent to 42 percent.
—57 percent of voters say New York is headed in the wrong direction while 35 percent believe the state is on the right track.
—79 percent of registered voters say the state is in a recession; 82 percent in upstate.
—73 percent of New Yorkers are worried about making ends meet.
—Sen. Charles Schumer’s approval rating is 55 percent. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is a little less at 50 percent, down from 59 percent in April.
—For Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, 48 percent of voters don’t have an opinion of him. Marist pollster Lee Miringoff pointed out this morning on Fred Dicker’s radio show that might be a good thing: the last comptroller Alan Hevesi resigned in disgrace last year.
—President Bush’s approval rating is just 11 percent in New York and 67 percent believe the job he is doing in office is poor. His approval rating is half what it was in April. At that time, 22 percent of voters in New York approved of the job George Bush was doing as president.

As we reported today, Gov. Paterson this morning said that the state’s budget gap for the current fiscal year has grown to $1.5 billion and $12.5 billion in the 2009-10 fiscal year.

Over the next four years, the state faces a $47 billion budget gap—almost double what the state estimated in July.

The state estimates it will lose $19.2 billion over the next four years due the troubles on Wall Street.

“New York is at the epicenter of the an extraordinary financial crisis on Wall Street,” Paterson said in a statement. “We will have no choice but to take bold and aggressive action to reduce state spending.”

Paterson also blamed the state’s troubles of its spending growth, saying the state budget grew from $61.9 billion in 1994-95 to $120.8 billion in 2008-09, an average increase of 4.9. percent, nearly double the inflation rate over that time.

   For anyone who struggles to fully explain the Electoral College, or who just wants a refresher, the federal Election Assistance Commission posted a 17-page explanation on its Web site. (The site has other reports on it and a Voter’s Guide to the Federal Elections, which is available in English, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Spanish, Tagalog and Vietnamese.) The Electoral College system was developed during the Constitutional Convention of 1787 as a compromise between people who wanted the president elected by a popular vote and those who wanted Congress to make the choice, without any input from the public.

   Here’s a piece of Electoral College trivia for your next party:

   There were eight instances in the 20th century in which an elector didn’t vote for the candidate he or she was pledged to—1948, 1956, 1960, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1998 and 2000. The votes have never affected the outcome of an election.

Whoever gets at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes wins.

State……….Votes…..State………………..Votes
Alabama……9……….Montana…………..3
Alaska………3………..Nebraska………….5
Arizona…….10………Nevada…………….5
Arkansas…..6……….New Hampshire.4
California…..55……..New Jersey……..15
Colorado……9……….New Mexico……..5
Connecticut.7……….New York………..31
Delaware…..3……….North Carolina…15
Dist. of Col..3……….North Dakota……3
Florida……..27………Ohio………………..20
Georgia……15………Oklahoma…………7
Hawaii……..4……….Oregon……………..7
Idaho……….4……….Pennsylvania……21
Illinois……..21……..Rhode Island…….4
Indiana……11………South Carolina….8
Iowa………..7……….South Dakota…….3
Kansas…….6……….Tennessee………..11
Kentucky…8………Texas………………..34
Louisiana…9………Utah………………….5
Maine………4………Vermont……………3
Maryland..10……..Virginia…………….13
Mass……….12……..Washington………11
Michigan…17………West Virginia……5
Minnesota.10……..Wisconsin…………10
Mississippi.6……….Wyoming………….3
Missouri…..11

Gov. David Paterson is expected to warn of a deepening fiscal crisis Tuesday when he releases the state’s mid-year fiscal plan.

Speaking in Buffalo on Monday, Paterson continued his forceful tone that the state’s budget problems will only get worse in the months, and maybe years, ahead.

He estimated that the budget gap for this fiscal year may have already grown by about $300 million in recent weeks – from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. He has called lawmakers back to Albany on Nov. 18 to cut $2 billion from the current budget, which expires March 31.

For the 2009-10 fiscal year, Paterson said the budget gap is expected to be as high as $12 billion—double the projection in July.

“I don’t think I can in any way describe to you the gravity of the economic crisis that is hitting the state,” he said.

On Tuesday, Paterson will present the state’s updated mid-year financial plan.

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, D-Manhattan, on Monday seemed to reject the idea of raising taxes on millionaires this year to cover the budget gap. But Silver kept the possibility open for next year.

“The Speaker has said repeatedly that he will work with his colleagues in government during the special session on Nov. 18 to bring New York’s current state budget back into balance without raising taxes,” Silver spokesman Dan Weiller said.

Weiller said that closing next year’s budget gap will require “shared sacrifice” and said for next year’s budget, “all policy options will be on the table.”

New campaign-finance reports show that while Rochester-area billionaire Tom Golisano has put most the $5 million into some upstate races, he also doled out some smaller checks to each of the candidates his Responsible New York PAC has endorsed.

Contributions to the campaigns of some candidates are as low as $250 to Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball’s re-election to as much as $9,500 for Sen. George Maziarz’ re-election campaign. Other notable contributions include $5,000 to Democratic Sen. Darrel Aubertine in the North Country and $7,500 to Sen. Thomas Libous, R-Binghamton.

Updated: At least one candidate said they did not receive anything from the PAC, despite Golisano’s endorsement. So it appears not all candidates got money.

Terry O’Neill, a Republican Assembly candidate in Albany against Democratic Assemblyman Jack McEneny said he got the group’s endorsement, but all he got was a press release.

This is the first time since Golisano started Responsible New York this summer that spending for candidates is listed in the campaign filings. Since the committee is spending money independently, it hasn’t listed specifically what races it is spending its money on.

But since the committee sent out checks to campaigns, it had to list the money as expenditures to the state Board of Elections.

Golisano also got something he’s not used to: someone returning his money.

Democratic Senate candidate Paloma Capanna returned $3,000 of the $5,000 that Golisano had planned to give her, saying she is not taking contributions of more than $2,000 for her campaign.

Her campaign filings have been a bit unique: She lists change that people gave her. For instance, her latest filing has 57 cents that a Paul Russell from Webster gave her on Oct. 15.

Of the $5 million Golisano put into Responsible New York, $1.7 million remains.

Responsible New York does not report to which races all the money has gone. For example, it lists $1.2 million in spending on television ads through New York Media Strategies, which is run by the group’s co-chairman Steve Pigeon, but it doesn’t list for which races.

Speaking of Pigeon, who said he’s not being paid for the work, he and Golisano continue to be dogged by questions about whether a Pigeon-run committee Citizens for Fiscal Integrity has circumvented contribution limits by receiving money for candidates through Responsible New York.

The Republican elections commissioner in Erie County sent letters to the district attorneys in Erie, Niagara and Genesee counties asking for an investigation.

Erie County District Attorney Frank Clark said he will look into the allegations, which Golisano disputes.

Here’s a look at enrollment trends in some of the key Senate races, showing how Democratic enrollment is on the rise.

District 3: Sen. Caesar Trunzo, R-Suffolk County, versus Brookhaven Supervisor Brian Foley, a Democrat.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 60,617 64,359 49,590
2006 56,273 67,489 46,456
Diff. 4,344 -3,130 3,134

District 7th: Sen. Craig Johnson, D-Nassau County, faces Republican Plandome Manor Mayor Barbara Donno after Johnson won a special election in 2007.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 84,990 71,638 51,680
2006 78,053 71,757 47,406
Difference 6,937 -119 4,274

District 15th: Sen. Serph Maltese, R-Queens, is running for re-election against Democratic city Councilman Joseph Addabbo after narrowly winning a 10th term in 2006.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 77,998 30,676 32,472
2006 73,993 32,255 29,741
Difference 4,005 -1,579 2,731

District 37: Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, D-Mamaroneck, Westchester County, is seeking a 12th term against Republican Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 96,391 55,934 55,863
2006 88,467 55,873 51,863
Difference 7,924 61 4,000

District 48: Sen. Darrel Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, Jefferson County, is running for a full term against Republican David Renzi, a public defender.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 50,275 79,500 36,545
2006 51,069 85,049 37,475
Difference. -794 -5,549 -930

District 55: Sen. James Alesi, R-Perinton, Monroe County, is seeking re-election against Democrat David Nachbar, a former Bausch and Lomb executive.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 71,010 71,517 50,423
2006 62,805 71,448 45,534
Diff. 8,205 69 4,889

District 56: Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, Monroe County, is running in his against Democrat Richard Dollinger, who preceded Robach in the Senate.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 85,842 45,799 41,464
2006 74,504 45,665 36,061
Diff. 11,338 134 5,403

District 58: Sen. William Stachowski, D-Buffalo, is running for re-election against Republican challenger Dennis Delano, a former Buffalo police detective.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 107,690 43,891 32,822
2006 110,411 45,665 36,061
Diff. -2,721 -1,774 -3,239

District 61: Republican Mike Ranzenhofer and Democrat Joe Mesi are running for an open seat that stretches across Erie and Genesee counties.
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
2008 78,758 82,891 41,322
2006 78,950 88,744 39,785
Diff. -192 -5,853 1,537

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s office said she just sent this letter out to constituents about the accomplishments of the second session of the 110th Congress.

Dear Friend,

As this session of Congress comes to a close, I want to update you on some of the important progress we have made this year and the work I am doing on critical priorities for our state and nation. There is no doubt that we face challenges on many fronts, from a growing economic crisis and high energy costs to a health care system that is not working for too many of our citizens. But we also have opportunities to address these challenges and that is what I am fighting to do every day as your Senator. I hope you find this information useful and I invite you to visit my website at www.clinton.senate.gov to learn more or to share your thoughts and concerns. Thank you for your interest and for all that you do to make our great state everything that it is and can be.

Sincerely,
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton

Republican Senate candidate Liz Feld said today that if she’s elected she would start a bi-partisan advocacy group to help get Westchester County its fair share of “state school, healthcare and infrastructure funding.”

She said would ask “top business, legal, healthcare and education executives and leading community and political activists of both parties, to take an active role in the bi-partisan advocacy group.”

Other areas of the state have done this: upstate business leaders a few years ago started Unshackle Upstate to lobby for reforms to help the upstate economy, while Rochester a few years ago created a fair-share commission as it sought for state-aid parity with other upstate cities.

Feld, who is running against Democratic Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, D-Mamaroneck, Westchester County, said “Westchester has become a fly-over county for state leaders hopping from Albany to New York City to Long Island.

“Some of the most influential business, legal, political and educational leaders in America live in this county, and their concerted voices would have a substantial impact on leaders from both parties in Albany. ”