Marist Poll: Obama Up Nine
The latest Marist poll today shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by 9 percentage points nationally—53 percent to 44 percent.
Marist had Obama up 7 percentage point lead last week.
Some of the findings:
—84 percent say they are not going to sway in their support for their chosen candidate, while just 3 percent say they are still on the fence.
—47 percent of registered voters nationally say they knew for whom they were going to vote even before the parties’ conventions, including 59 percent of McCain’s backers and 43 percent of Obama’s supporters.
—Both candidates are viewed favorably. Nearly 57 percent have a favorable opinion of McCain, while 56 percent view Obama positively.
—A majority of registered voters nationally—53 percent—view Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden favorably, and 46 percent have a positive view of Republican VP choice Sarah Palin.
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every single one of these polls has the democrat up at
50% or better:
National Marist Obama 53, McCain 44 Obama +9
National FOX News Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
National NBC News/Wall Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
National Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
National Gallup Obama 55, McCain 44 Obama +11
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/C-SP Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
Ohio PPP (D) Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Pennsylvania PPP (D) Obama 53, McCain 45 Obama +8
Florida PPP (D) Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
unless there is a hidden bradley effect which i doubt
and every single pollster is sampling incorrectly
the election will be over by 8pm tomorrow night
However I don’t think Obama will do quite as well
in the red states that he is close in..McCain
should hold MO, Oh, NC, FL, 291 for Obama
Mike-
Do you know if PPP surveys include cellphones? If not, then I think you’re looking at a bigger edge for Obama, in which case, he’s more likely to carry OH, FL and NC. At any rate, there are maybe only 5% still undecideds left, and even if McCain picks up every one of them, it still only boosts him by maybe 1% in the popular vote.
I’m calling 340 electoral for Obama.
you are absolutely correct..they can’t poll cell phone
kids..and there are plenty of them…in addition there
are african americans who turn out at about 78%...who
will turn out 90% this year..finally there are white voters
who will vote for obama to demonstrate that they are not
racist
Unless it rains, then none of the above will venture out into the open.
Just in- Obama’s Grandmother died earlier today.
yes i understand that its true but the election is over
mccain has to carry all of the states which are red and
he cannot do that….
and here is another thing while everyone is consumed with
politics I have a 19 year old in wcc..who did very poorly
in HS…but is now getting all A’s..so that is my priority
the rest is just noise..fun while it lasted but see ya
Consultant – I have a friend whose kid was smart, but stumbled through high school in a fog. The kid got out of the element he hung around with, went 2 years to WCC, all A’s – and then on to Columbia, 2007 Magna Cum Laude graduate. These things can happen.
yes but did he suck the life blood out of his dad for
the 19 years preceding!!!!! oh well you want to be a dad
you have to put the time in…and he can drive 290
thats not mph its yards! ;)
Mike, ya gotta love your kids for what they ARE and WILL BE, not for what they were. Sounds like yours is doing OK by that standard.
In other news, Dixville Notch, NH has reported their results…
Obama: 15
McCain: 6
yes indeed he turned out to be a great kid..and I think
that the stoggie old voters in DIxville have hit the nail
on the head..the race should be over at 8pm
after virginia reports and fla and ohio are in as well
I will be on news 12 reporting the local returns
National Polls don’t count, so throw them out.
Battle ground States count only today.
Indy is the first to watch, if McCain loses Indy than it is mostly over.
If McCain wins Indy, ........then the other scenario then plays out, .....Fl, Oh, VA, Iowa & PA. Then believe it or not, McCain wins.
Forget polls!
Although many today show McCain ahead in battleground states.
6 PM four years ago John Kerry was picking out his cabinet!
The rest is history.
No kool-aid talk just the facts.
Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns
The problem with your scenario, Jim, is that McCain needs a perfect storm, all 6 of those states to pull off a win. Ain’t gonna happen.
Not facts, just opinions.
Jim the facts are that Obama is outside the margin
in too many red states for McCain to win the presidency
watch virginia at 7pm Indiana is a red state…then watch
florida and ohio at 8pm…if obama wins any of them
the race is over
I would like to know from Jim Kelly which of these polls
is not accurate:
Tuesday, November 04
National Marist Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
National Reuters Zogby Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
National IBD/TIPP Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Ohio Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Survey Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Zogby Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
Florida SurveyUSA Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
Florida Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1
North Carolina Zogby McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1
North Carolina ARG McCain 48, Obama 49 Obama +1
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Virginia ARG Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Missouri Reuters/Zogby McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie
Nevada Reuters/Zogby Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
Indiana Reuters/Zogby McCain 50, Obama 45 McCain +5
West Virginia ARG McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
even if McCain just wins virginia and Nevada its over
but I expect he wins colorado and new mexico as well
and of course no problem with pa where even zogby has
him with a 9 point lead..more than sufficient to
balance out whatever bradley effect there may be
Help coming to the Red States?
“For Americans voting from Israel, the elections are over. Early polling suggests 75% of the 200,000 Americans eligible to vote here did so for John McCain.
80,000 votes coming in from the overseas military.
Call it my NFL mind thought, but I don’t give up until the end
Forget polls!
Although many today show McCain ahead in battleground states.
6 PM four years ago John Kerry was picking out his cabinet!
The rest is history.
the dynamic this year is totally different…last time
Kerry couldn’t make the case in Ohio…nevermind any
other red states…there was no financial meltdown..
and sarah Palin was not an issue…..republicans
did not defect as they have this year..conservative
writers did not find Cheney unacceptable he had already
served one term….the race is over
Re: Dixville Notch – Obama 15, McCain 6. Obama has five field goals, showing team McCain playing excellent defense in the red zone. The McCains went for two to keep it within seven, but were thwarted. Navy would never have a problem with Columbia or Harvard, but the coaching and recruiting have lately been questionable.
for Jim Kelly….I think you will find this essay interesting in explaining why Obama is doing so well
in battleground states in the rust belt
What we’re seeing in these three swing states is the end of the Catholic vote, as conventional political strategists traditionally have expected it to behave—in part because it’s now so large it pretty much looks like the rest of America; in part because of its own internal changes. National polls have shown for some time that, although Catholics are personally opposed to abortion, they believe it ought to be legal in nearly identical percentages to the rest of America. Moreover, as a survey by Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate found earlier this year, only 18% of Catholics “strongly” agree with the statement: “In deciding what is morally acceptable, I look to the church teachings and statements by the pope and bishops to form my conscience.”
There’s also a profound demographic shift occurring in this sector. Nearly one-third of all American Catholics now are Latinos, as are more than 50% of all Catholics under 40. They have broken overwhelmingly for Obama because of his stands on the economy and immigration. (Shades of the 1840s.)
What all this suggests is that, in this and coming election cycles, we may see a new model for the Catholic vote, one whose participation more closely resembles that of Jews, 75% of whom are overwhelmingly pro-Democratic, while a devout minority, the Orthodox, tends more strongly Republican. If you break the Catholic vote down in roughly the same pattern, you get something that looks like the current national spread. According to most reliable data, slightly less than one in four Catholics now assist at weekly Mass and are more open to GOP policies, while the overwhelming majority of their co-religionists have cast their lot with the Democrats’ domestic and foreign policies.
In other words, back to the future.
timothy.rutten@latimes.com
“the consultant
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:02 pm
and here is another thing while everyone is consumed with politics I have a 19 year old in wcc..who did very poorly in HS…but is now getting all A’s..so that is my priority
the rest is just noise..fun while it lasted but see ya”
Hey, I have a 16 year-old – who is not straight A’s. My Mother-in-law, God bless her soul, reminded me that grades are not always a true barometer of life. Her youngest son almost flunked out of highschool. He was accepted at Univ of Michigan – he had three siblings preceed him, so they accepted him based on the family history. He now holds a Ph.D. and is one of the top scientists at Fermi Lab.
The kids need to figure out what they are happy with and do it.
On another note, I have never ever thought that my son sucked the life out of me. But then again, we brought the kid with us wherever we went. My son met more “important people” in his first 6 years of life than most 6 year-olds. We didn’t curfew our engagements because of our son, he came with us. In fact one of those times was a Fabiani Society cocktail get-together with …
On second thought, if you want to know, you may ask Tim Hays for my info.
and you may ask timmy for mine…sucked the life out of
me is kind of a metaphor …you see while everyone thinks
that i am a poltical operative..i actually spent almost
all of my time with my son..
“Timmy”—areference to my old pal Tim Rutten at my alma mater, or me? lol!
I NEVER sell consultant short. He is a good friend of mine. I admire and respect him. And: he is a GREAT father—which is where he became my hero (in addition to his political acumen and being “tv guy” like Denzel when I first moved to Westchester) after I got to know consultant.
Just one thing: I worked all day yesterday as an election inspector at Greenburgh ED 59. It is the truest way to sense the mood of voters. We processed 500 voters, from a registration base of 659. Both parties turned out voters in droves.
I voted for John McCain. (Well: I’m a lifelong Republican, and a GOP official. How do you think I would have voted?) I left the State Senate box blank. I voted for Jim Russell, my favorite Quixotic candidate. And “For” Prop A.
I remember vividly 1976, and 1980, when I proudly voted for Gerald Ford, and then, for my hero RWR.
I remember eating “crow” from gloating Dem pals who thought I was out of the picture for having shown loyalty to good Republican presidential candidates.
Ha! I said to them. Let your conscience be the guide. And there are always other elections. Nothing personal. My people lost. We’ll regroup.
I would never, however, have stated on television that I voted for the Democratic presidential candidate as he was winning an obvious electoral landslide.
I would have humbly gone down with my choice, in defeat—and, as I am doing today, publicly wish the president-elect only the best luck in leading our country, while expressing my remorse at my candidate’s losing. (Hubert Humphrety did such a thing in both 1968 and again in 1972, with RMN.)
There’ll be another presidential election in four years.
My Westchester Republican Party needs a “regroup.”
We’ll be back, as was our national GOP—four years after 1976.
In the time being: only best wishes to the president-elect,and Godspeed for the continued best interests of our United States.
here here
“Yes indeed,” to quip from your “here here.”
I apologize for only one thing, consultant, bro:
I confess to watching News 12, following my retreat from the polls last night, mainly to my being able to seeing Tara Rosenbloom reporting. Apologies! I like seeing you, too. (You know that.)
But Tara Rosenbloom? Wow!
I teased Ms. Rosenbloom at a political gathering some four years ago that she would soon be on NBC (where my goddaughter appears), or at another prominent network.
What’s holding her back? (No pun intended.)
Tara Rosenbloom is a goddess. And her poise and sense of humor and valkyrian stature, combined with that obvious great intelligence, makes her superior to other news-network slackers.
If Swifty Lazar were still alive, he would have gotten Ms. Rosenbloom a multi-million dollar contract by now.
So, consultant, bro: why don’t YOU negotiate that good network contract for Ms. R?
(If you need help, call on me.)
;>
I think all the jobs are taken at the networks
in the city..there isn’t much movement given the
economy but tara definitely is bright and has
a promising future in the buisness…
Oh consultant. Tara is at the stage in her life where she will be taken by any net in the city, or across the river, or in Chicago.
Don’t damn Ms. Rosenbloom with feint praise. She is going to be a star—with the right manager.
I miss Swifty.
Okay: I’m getting her bio to Mort Janklow. And Ed Hookstratten.
;>
Tim
At the risk of being thought a stereotyper, with a name like Tara Rosenbloom, which sounds half Irish and half Jewish, she probably has nothing against the occasional drink, and writes poetry. Of course, the wine would be Mogen David and the poetry by Ginsberg.
Unless, of course, my thinking is gone with the wind.
ed1: you should be poet laureate of our Republican Party here in Westchester.
lol! But that’s serious.
Half Irish, half Jewish= beautiful.
That’s Tara Rosenbloom.
My late mother, who taught journalism at USC, and was a professional woman forty years ahead of her time, would agree. (Channelling mom from the grave.)
she is tall and very good looking..and very smart..
after that who cares
But, does she own a golf cart?
GOP Girl has similar characteristics to Ms. R. But: we care. ;>
And getting the son into an affirmative-action school that was once good (UM) is an accomplishment.
I have a bunch of UM stories, when we all get together for lunch.
Timmy (from UCLA) has all the numbers.
Mine is tim@haysmedia.net, or else 478-5110.
the consultant
“November 5th, 2008 at 1:01 am
and you may ask timmy for mine…sucked the life out of me is kind of a metaphor …you see while everyone thinks that i am a poltical operative..i actually spent almost
all of my time with my son..”
I am sorry consultant. I phrased my reply wrong. While I thought the thought, I didn’t type it (hey the elections caught my eye), the thought was that I thought you could have re-worded the phrase better-I do not believe you to be a bad father, and I didn’t mean to suggest that.
I also hoped that the beginning of the comment was of support. Your kid, if he likes what he’s doing, is going to be happy and perhaps at the top of his field.
tim will fill you in..he is a good kid..but not
without a lot of tending in the formative years..now
his head appears to be on straight..I am just telling
you this because most people think all I do is
poltical stuff..in fact 90% of what I do is
raise my son