Raasch’s election night winners and losers
Here’s the take from Gannett’s own Chuck Raasch on the winners and losers of election night 2008:
• Howard Dean. Big winner. His 50-state strategy, denigrated by old-line Democrats like James Carville, was vindicated. Dean buttressed Democratic staff in all 50 states and refocused on the broader map, paving the way for Obama to compete and win in longtime Republican bastions like Indiana and Virginia.
• Young voters. Winners and losers. People under age 30 were an important part of Obama’s winning coalition. But despite all the pre-election hype, they did not vote in significantly higher percentages this time. And they entered a political system that will leave their generation $10 trillion in debt, and counting.
• Karl Rove. Loser. Four years ago, the Republicans’ best strategist was talking about building a lasting GOP governing majority following President Bush’s re-election. Today, Bush is compared with Herbert Hoover, and the Republicans are at pre-Ronald Reagan strength in Congress and in state governorships.
• Civil rights movement. Big winner. Jesse Jackson’s tears and those of ordinary Americans, black and white, said it all.
• Republican congressional leadership. Loser. When your leader in the Senate survives a close re-election and will have fewer senators to lead and when there is open revolt against your leaders in the House, trouble is ahead in your Grand Old Party.
• Republican governors. Winners. Even though their numbers dwindled Tuesday, any GOP comeback probably will have to come from the governors. Southerners Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Charlie Crist of Florida, as well as others like Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, either have national ambitions or stature.
• Sarah Palin. Winner and loser. A majority of voters told exit pollsters she wasn’t ready to be president if the need arrived. But the Democrats and the entertainment elite attacked the Alaska governor, the more popular she became among loyal Republicans. Four more years of experience, coupled with her national stature, is a recipe for a makeover.
• Viral media. Big winner. Obama used the power of social networking and technological advances, like YouTube, to advance Democrats’ use of this new medium. This medium is to Democrats what talk radio was to Republicans in the 1980s and 1990s. Obama already has signaled he’ll use social networks and cell phone technology to put pressure on Congress and to marshal support for his agena. Republicans will need to catch up — fast — or find the next medium to compete. Is it the Star Trek-esque hologram that CNN unveiled Tuesday night?
• Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live, and the Democratic-Hollywood entertainment complex. Winners and losers. Fey brilliantly portrayed Palin, and SNL’s political satire revived sagging ratings. Hollywood liberals got their president. Bad news: They won’t have Palin and McCain to kick around any more. And independent studies showed the late-night comics and talk show folks didn’t find Obama particularly funny.
• Abortion rights supporters. Winners. For the second time, South Dakota voters struck down a restrictive abortion referendum, and Obama could have several appointments to the Supreme Court that likely would guarantee the court would not reverse the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision for a generation.
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the best thing that could have happened to the GOP was
the election of Barack Obama..He will appoint three pro
choice justices who are young to the supreme court and
in so doing will make the abortion fight moot…without
that divisive issue moderate and conservative republicans
can agree on many more issues like restraining spending,
going back to a more traditional foreign policy course,
fighting terrorism, and keeping the nation safe…
watch for Rudy Giuliani, a pro choice republican to
emerge as the choice for governor to run in 2010
and for bill powers to be the new state chairman
BIG LOSERS: The westchester co. republican party. They can thank people like the “consultant”, who pockets enormous fees and then advises sheep like colety on how to lose 15 of 17 races, one winner being un-opposed.
WAY TO GO LOSERS
The Consultant is in la-la land. As if three left-wing judges on the Supreme Court would stop at Roe V. Wade. That would be just the beginning. But Roe V. Wade is not going to get to ANY Supreme Court, in my opinion.
Three left-wing judges on the Supreme Court would do a lot of damage, let alone other like-minded judges Obama could nominate for other courts. If you don’t think so, look at the Fed Court that covers California. Legislating from the bench and thinking the Constitution is a “living document” doesn’t seem to bother the Consultant.
With Dems winning by a larger margin than Bush ever won with and with Anti-abortion propositions defeated all over the country this issue is already moot.
Clearly the Religious contingent trying to pry the GOP way to the right (i.e. Sarah Palin) they have succeeded in pulling the party away from the majority of the country.
Unfortunately for them the majority of this country support choice and freedom and government out of our lives. They need to move on from this tiresome issue.
The Consultant seems to be out of the loop. Assuming Obama gets three judicial picks, which is unlikely in his first term, he will likely be replacing Stevens, Souter, and Ginsberg. Ginsberg and Stevens are the oldest justices and Souter is said not to particularly like being a justice. Alito, Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas are likely to be there for quite awhile. Moreover, unless the Supreme Court hears an abortion case in the next four years, the precedent on abortion won’t change and it will still be a campaign issue. And its not entirely clear a liberal pro-choice justice will support the Roe precedent. Most legal scholars including ones who are adamently pro-choice have trouble with the logic behind the decision, including Justice Ginsberg.
Regardless if Roe v. Wade gets reversed or not, there will be legal abortions in most states in this country.
It really appears that the “Consultant”, not sure if he has “consulted” in a very long time, is completely aware of how the Supreme Court works.
And after his lousy campaign run in which Giuliani moved to the right it is unlikely that he will beat out the current governor, who has shown himself to be quite competent.
the consultant is never out of the loop…as it happens
I was having a martini and didn’t make myself clear.
the fact that obama gets to appoint and not mccain
means there will be three YOUNG justices who are
pro choice…but the crux of the argument is that
the party needs to get off the social issues where
they seem to have no problem with the government
intruding in ones life..eg terry schiavo, and
abortion…Palin wanted no exceptions…frankly
its not my issue…but appealing to independents
requires minimum intrusions both fiscally and socially
Three judge replacements are all going to be the Liberal Judges, Conservatives still will rule the bench because of the Bush selections.
Rudy is not running for Governor and Powers is not going to be Chairman take that to the bank. Rudy is late 60’s and does not want to sleep in Hiliday Inns across the State while campaigning.
NY State is more then not a “Banana Republic” like Massachusetts with the lost of Senate. The losses of NY State Senate in strong GOP upstate areas is becuase of Bruno moving the party to the far left.
Roe v. Wade is a b.s. issue. Even if it was overturned, which it wouldn’t be, all that would happen is that states would make their own laws. A reversal would NOT ban abortion throughout the US, but return the determinations to the states.
Jiminy is correct about the Roe v. Wade issue-if it were overturned so that states would cover the issue, it is possible that at the most two states would make it illegal. If you want to stop abortions you have got to do it on a personal level. If a woman wants an abortion she is going to get one-you just have to convince her, on a moral level, not to have one.
That said, I’m glad the Consultant likes martinis. In 1996 Robert Bork wrote a lovely piece “Ambrosia & amnesia – drinking – How To Forget The Election – Cover Story” for National Review. I think you might enjoy it if you haven’t already read it.
Here’s the link:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_n22_v48/ai_18914531/pg_2?tag=artBody;col1
I hope you enjoy it. Tim, I think you will really like it.
;o)
Good-night
LOSERS: All the yapping Republican Assembly candidates. Everyone shot their big mouths off, and they all fell, all doing worse than 2-1 defeats. Now, there was an Obama/anti-George W. tidal wave, but c’mon now:
How does Gouldman show his face when he fell under 33%? Faulkner almost under 25%? Biagi under 30% Ditto Pilla. They had a lot to say, but couldn’t back it up.
And, I might add, numerous bloggers who predicted success for these Republi-clowns. Step forward me boys, and admit you blew it.
This proves my continual thesis: it’s a Democratic County now, ladies. Act accordingly.
Donkey Darling,
I will admit we blewed it.
GOP Girl
I also predicted incorrectly. I remain a Palin fan. I think that it’s very easy to make up stories about her to cover your own failures and who knows what was actually said.
I guess the one that annoys me the most is the one where the McCain Campaign folks showed up at her hotel and she had just “gotten out of the shower and answered the door in a bathrobe”. What was the point of that? Was she to leave them in the hall for a half hour or did they want her to open the door in a towel?
The whole story sounds like nonsense to me. a whole lot of CYA but no CYA can fix this mess.
McCains staffers are not making up anything….Newsweek
was given access to certain private documents under
which they agreed not to disclose until after the election
It is very important..that the Republican Party look
to leaders who are credible…and who have been fully
veted..just because Pain is popular with the base
does not translate into her being suitable to lead
the party….there a lots of other better choices
and do not discount the information just because
it was leaked by McCain’s staff..they may be doing
it to warn the rest of the party…
They may be doing it for any number of reasons. They should explain themselves and then there won’t be any reason to doubt them. I do doubt the stories.
non
PS anything new on the gun guy front?
Yes there is quite a bit new on that front…stay tuned
the ny press is aware of the fraud being perpetrated
on the court….they have to do a little research
but they will be reporting on it as soon as they can
confirm the information they are getting
my point by the way about sarah..has nothing to
do with whether I like her or whether she is
a nice lady etc..and i don’t care about the towell
but the McCain campaign made a mistake..and the
same people who made the mistake are now trying
to put the onus on her….she is no different
today than she was before her selection..but
THEY PICKED HER…
and this from the christian science monitor
To regain traction, it must re-invent itself as a party of hope and of ideas relevant to a wider range of Americans. To do so, it must reject the partisan conservative media that peddles in political stereotypes and personal venom. It cannot fall into the trap of being only an opposition party whose primary focus is designing “wedge” issues, such as a call for more offshore oil drilling, in order simply to split Democrats.
Right now, a finger-pointing debate has started among Republicans about the mistakes that McCain made in his campaign and George W. Bush made as president. That backward-looking discussion can go only so far. A conservative movement needs forward momentum by employing fresh ideas.
The GOP brand has been reduced to one word – freedom – in the way that the Democrats were stuck with the one-dimensional brand of equality. But if there is one reason for Obama’s victory, it is that he seeks to move his party, and the country, toward that classic American brand: opportunity.
If Republicans want a comeback, they could become the loyal opposition that debates Democrats on the best way to create more opportunities for Americans, allowing them to increase their social mobility through hard work and education.
The party can still be for limited government, but a government effective in providing tools to support innovation and entrepreneurship.
In Britain, where the Tory Party has been out of power for years, Conservatives hope this concept will be their ticket back.
“The center right understands that society and the economy are both made up of the same thing: people,” states Conservative leader David Cameron. “You need to get the incentives right, get the framework right, and give people responsibility to do the right thing.”
Mr. Cameron also sees a government role in fixing broken society: “We have seen a decades-long erosion of responsibility, of social virtue, of self-discipline, respect for others, deferring gratification.”
Reinventing the GOP won’t be easy. But American democracy needs a strong conservative party. With a freshening of ideas, Republicans could eventually become the comeback kids.
McCain camp is trashing Palin to save face. After watching the media start turning to Palin in 2012 in post election coverage it was clear the media was putting a lot of it on McCain’s shoulders. Palin also slammed Mcnasty herself so they are returning in kind and Fox News is leading the way.
It was pretty clear she had no clue what she was talking about. Her interviews were abysmal, her debate was a bunch of memorized propaganda which made little sense and was no better than just reciting McCain’s web site.
She was a bad pick plain and simple. The problem is she was not the sole reason John boy lost. He was losing before he selected her. Worse I do not think McCain even picked her which makes his camps trashing of her even more ironic. We all know there was a committee designed to produce selections for VP. McCain never seemed very sincere about how much he liked Sarah.
McCain had no shot in this election. He was too much like Bush and the current economy was not playing well to that. Saying you are a maverick doesn’t make it so. He lost that title back in 2002 when the Republicans had marginalized him and he sold out to get the nomination this time around.
McCain was the John Kerry of this election. He was saying whatever he could to try and pander for votes. His entire campaign had no direction and Palin made it worse. She was polarizing and divisive which is about all you can sum up about McCains whole strategy. One minute Obama is a terrorist then he’s a “good family guy”, then he is a Muslim radical, then a “Good presidential candidate” etc…
I feel sorry for McCain really because it was clear he earnestly wanted to be president for a long time but he lost his way. The John McCain of 2000 was a strong and credible Maverick. The John McCain of 2008 was a complete stranger.
He was not trusted by the centrists or moderates because he has changed so much over the past couple years. He was not trusted by his own base because of what he was in 2000. Heck it took Palin to bring Limbaugh and Hannity on board who both despised McCain.
The GOP is now being thrown into the mess like the Dems were a few years ago. Dead in the water with no apparent leadership. Too many Republicans are moving too far right and that is hurting their reputations. This defeat will force them back to the center and they will start winning again next election. But one can only hope we have seen the last of Sarah Palin and her Real vs. Fake America BS.
when you say ‘the ny press’ should we all just assume that the journal news will not be part of this truth telling? (as if I had to ask)
no I would not assume that..although they do appear
to be a bit intimidated …unlike the reporters in
the city…
wow add intimidated of strip club guy and a far leftist slant that really overwhelms their ability to write objectively and what’s left but left?
non
If it keeps on the way it is, it will be left right out.
Maybe Jesse Jackson’s tears of joy had something to do with the rumor that the fix is in for his son to be appointed to Obama’s vacant seat. Which is why he agreed to keep silent during the campaign. Obama’s people knew (correctly) that his big mouth could only hurt them, not help.