Politics on the Hudson

Here’s a web of intrigue being discussed around the Capitol that could wind up with Sen. Thomas Libous, R-Binghamton, as majority leader of the Senate some time next year. At the moment, that seems beyond unlikely, since Democrats have the majority and Libous lost a fight earlier this year to lead the Republicans to Sen. Dean Skelos of Nassau County.   This is how it could work, according to insiders: four conservative New York City Democrats have declared themselves an “independent caucus,’’ meaning they’re not necessarily committed to making the current Democratic leader Malcolm Smith the majority leader when the Legislature reconvenes in January.  Since the Democratic margin is only 32-30, they could be the swing voters between the parties.

But under pressure from Gov. David Paterson, the four are likely to back Smith, at least for a few months.

But if Smith fails to perform, this theory goes, the “gang of four’’ could be talked into withdrawing such support and making a deal with the Republicans to elect a majority leader from the GOP.  But they wouldn’t back Skelos, whom Paterson has clashed with. They might insist instead that Republicans replace Skelos with Libous,  whom Paterson and other Democrats feel they can “work with.’’

Far-fetched? Maybe,  but a year ago who would have thought Eliot Spitzer would be brought down by a prostitution scandal?