First Giants lose; now state deficit may grow
That $15 billion deficit Gov. David Paterson has been talking about for next year? Maybe he’s being a little too optimistic.
E.J. McMahon of the Empire Center, a conservative think tank, pointed out today that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a worse national economy than Paterson’s Budget Division has predicted.
The office sees a higher national unemployment this year (8.3 percent compared to state Budget Division estimate of 7.6 percent), an actual shrinkage in the gross domestic product this year of .4 percent while the state sees an increase of .8 percent, and an inflation rate of 0.1 percent instead of 1.4 percent.
Overall, McMahon said of the federal estimates are accurate, the state will get $60 million less in tax revenue than they are now forecasting.
Just what the Legislature and Paterson, who has already proposed $9 billion in cuts and $3 billion in new taxes and fees, wants to hear.
Budget Division spokesman Jeffrey Gordon pointed out that the CBO numbers are based on more recent data than the state figures. The state numbers will be updated later this week when Paterson introduces amendments to his spending plan, which lawmakers are supposed to adopt by April 1.
| 
Email This
Advertisements
What no one apparently sees at this point is that
1. there is no end in sight to the financial crisis
2. in light of the millions of adjustable rate mortgages
which have yet to adjust….there will be further defaults
on mortgages..and further exposure of the banking system
3. simply spending money as the TARP does will not solve
the problem
4. the middle class tax cuts are not stimulative..just as
the checks for 1000 last year had no effect..neither will
a 25 dollar per paycheck increase (by lowering payroll taxes) encourage spending…what a crock of bull
5. there is only one solution to the problem and that
is to fix the cause of it….ie the housing collapse
the government has to allow reflation of housing values
so that banks start lending again to credit worthy
borrowers and so that buyers are able to take excess inventory off the market which will enable home
builders to build again
here is how I believe it can be done
1. government subsidizes mortgages for those about
to loose their homes, those who want to buy new homes
and PEOPLE WHO PAY THEIR MORTGAGES ON TIME
AT 2.99 % FIXED FOR 30 YEARS
THIS CUTS IN HALF THE AVERAGE PAYMENT ON A 6% MORTGAGE
AND PERMANENTLY LOWERS THE MONTHLY CARRYING COSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH BORROWING TO OWN A HOME
2. HOWEVER TO BUY A NEW HOME THE MONTHLY MORTGAGE AND
TAX PAYEMENTS CANNOT EXCEED 30% OF MONTHLY NET INCOME
THATS NET NOT GROSS ( IT HAD FOREMERLY BEEN 38% OF GROSS)
3 THE BUYER HAS TO HAVE SOME SKIN IN THE GAME ..IN THE FORM
OF AT LEAST 25% DOWNPAYMENT
4. FOR THOSE ABOUT TO LOOSE THEIR HOMES THE DOWNPAYMENT
PART IS WAIVED..FOR THOSE ABOUT TO BUY OR REFINANCE
IT APPLIES
5. THE GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR SUBSIDIZING THE LOAN
AT THE LOWER RATE GETS IN THE MORTGAGE DOCS..AN INTEREST
IN THE APPRECIATED VALUE OF THE HOME WHEN IT IS SOLD
OF 25%; OF THE PROFIT…
THIS PLAN WOULD DO A COUPLE OF THINGS
1. REDUCE EXCESS HOUSING INVENTORY
2. INSURE THAT BORROWERS ON NEW HOUSING COULD
MEET THEIR MONTHLY PAYMENTS
3. REPAY THE GOVERNMENT DOWN THE ROAD FOR ITS INVESTMENT
IE THE MONEY WOULD NOT BE REALLY SPENT
4. ALLOW THOSE ALREADY LIVING IN A HOUSE AND PAYING
THEIR MORTGAGES TO REFINANCE AND CASH OUT…UP TO THE
30% INCOME LIMIT OR UP TO 70% OF THE VALUE OF THE HOUSE
AND THAT MONEY COULD AND WOULD BE USED TO SPEND FOR
LARGE TICKET ITEMS, EDUCATION, ETC..THAT WOULD BE A GUARANTEED STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY RATHER THAN A
WISHFUL ONE..OR ONE AT 25 DOLLARS AT A TIME
UNTILL THE HOUSING ISSUE IS SOLVED….THE ECONOMY WILL
NOT RECOVER
In the meantime, we here in NY State, debate soda pop and committee chairmanship stipends.
Thats because in new york state, all the talented business
people are not engaged in solving the governments problems
they pay their taxes and go home at night leaving the
solution to officials like patterson, skelos, smith
spano and feiner….