Politics on the Hudson

Democratic congressional candidate Scott Murphy has taken a 4 percentage-point lead against Republican candidate James Tedisco as the race to replace Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand heads into the final days, a poll today found.

The third Siena College poll on the race shows that Murphy has reversed a 12 percentage-point deficit a month ago and has taken the slim lead in the special election for the 20th Congressional District, which stretches from the Hudson Valley to the North Country.

Murphy leads Tedisco 47 percent to 43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45 percent to 41 percent margin, the poll found. Murphy’s lead is just outside the poll’s margin of error.

Regardless of whom they are supporting, voters by a 45 percent to 35 percent margin still think Tedisco will win the election.

The special election is Tuesday. They are running to succeed Gillibrand, who was appointed in January to the Senate.
“While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.

“In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead.”

The race has gained national attention and millions of dollars from national political parties for non-stop television ads. It is being viewed as a bellwether for the parties after Democrats made gains in Congress in last year’s elections and after President Obama took office.

In particular, the candidates have battled over the federal stimulus package, with Murphy supporting the measure and Tedisco railing against it after he initially wavered over his stance.

The district has about 70,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, but Murphy has been aided in recent days by Obama’s endorsement and a radio ad from Vice President Joseph Biden.

Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44 percent to 25 percent margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive, with 25 percent saying he’s running a negative campaign.

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent,” Greenberg said.

The poll was conducted March 25 and 26 by telephone calls to 917 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

As mentioned in the previous post, the State of the City presented by Yonkers Mayor Phil Amicone was not a pretty picture: The city faces a deficit topping $100 million for the budgert year that starts Juy 1. Here’s how a few Yonkers Council members reacted.

Minority Leader Liam McLaughlin: “It was nothing that wasn’t expected. We’ve been seeing the financial forecasts. The writings on the wall. No surprises there.”

Asked about the hopeful side of the mayor’s speech: that the city will emerge from its current difficulties stronger than before, McLaughlin was not enthusiastic. 

“We like to keep a postiive tone, but it’s very difficult,” said McLaughlin, R-4th District.

Councilwoman Dee Barbato R-6th District said the mayor’s focus on development, particularly the massive Streuver Fidelco Cappelli project was not going to help the city with the next budget. She acknowledged the project would help future budgets, which was Amicone’s point.

“If there’s not dialogue between everybody involved in this, if there’s not information sharing, we are not going to get through this in the long run,” said Barbato. The councilwoman has not been pleased with with Amicone’s decison to back Jim Castro-Blanco for the Republican nomination for City Council President, a post Barbato was considering.

On the other side of the aisle, Democatic City Councilwoman Patricia McDow sounded more approving.
“I thought it was as up tempo as you could possibly be in these economic times. I agree with the mayor that we do have to move forward with development,.” McDow said.

McDow made it clear she didn’t want to be rushed into the final government agreements needed for the SFC project-  a land disposition agreement, essentially a contract for the city to sell much of the development sites, and a plan to finance the public infrastructure needed for the project though future tax revenue on the site.

“As council members we have a responsibility to the taxpayers,” McDow said. “We have to make sure we have jobs (for Yonkers residents); We have to make sure we have affordable housing; And we have to make sure our local merchants get some of this pie, that they have a oppunities to participate in this process.”

Advance word on Mayor Phil Amicone’s State of the City speech delivered tonight was glum. Given a projected budget gap for the city and school district topping $100 million, it’s hard to imagine othewise. 

The speech was interrupted by applause 10 times. That’s not many for a speech that went on for 16 pages or nearly 40 minutes. Convention calls for a State of (fill in your favorite government level) address to be packed with so many accomplishments, real or imagined, that an audience interrupts the speaker several times every page. Amicone’s speech produced only one outburst in its first five pages.

That came from a line espousing gritty determination in the face of difficult times. “Every man, woman and child in this city should know that Yonkers has survived tougher times and we will survive and emerge stronger from these tough times as well,” Amicone said.  “We won’t give up on our city of Yonkers.”

Come back a little later. I hope to post some reaction to the speech after I write a fuller account on the address to appear tomorrow in The Journal News and LoHud.com.

   As state budget negotiations for 2009-10 go down to the wire, education groups and the teachers union are warning there will be thousands of school layoffs unless lawmakers add more money to education. The Council of School Superintendents estimates that districts outside the state’s five big cities may need to lay off about 7,800 teachers, administrators and support staff. Hundreds more jobs could be lost by leaving open positions held by school staff members who retire or resign, according to the council.

   The superintendents, along with New York State United Teachers, the Alliance for Quality Education and the Campaign for Fiscal Equity called on the Legislature and Gov. David Paterson to spend more on education, rather than just using federal stimulus aid to avoid cuts. The governor has promised to restore $700 million in proposed education cuts with federal stimulus money.

   “If state aid comes up short, that means schools will be making more spending cuts,” Council Executive Director Thomas Rogers said in a statement today. “Since 70 percent of school spending goes to personnel, when big cuts are needed, schools have no choice but to cut jobs.”

   Lawmakers are supposed to pass a budget by Wednesday, the start of the new fiscal year. The state faces a $16.2 billion budget gap. Gov. David Paterson announced two days ago that the state would lay off nearly 9,000 workers because his administration has not been able to convince labor unions to take a 3 percent pay cut and a five-day pay lag.

   The education groups and teachers union want the state to get back on track with a four-year plan to pump $7 billion more into education. The plan was developed in 2007, following years of litigation about education equity and funding for New York City schools, and the overall goal is to help poor districts around the state. The governor proposed spending $20.7 billion on education in 2009-10, $2.5 billion less than what spending was scheduled to be.

   “The message is crystal clear—there will be thousands of educators laid off unless the state puts money on top of the federal stimulus for education,” said Billy Easton, head of the Alliance for Quality Education.

The closed-door negotiations to get an on-time budget by Wednesday has yet to garner many concrete results.

Proponents of adding a 5-cent deposit on bottles of water believed they had a deal late Wednesday, only to find out today that some Senate Democrats remain opposed.

“There is certainly no readiness to do that here,” Sen. Pedro Espada, D-Bronx, said of the so-called bottle bill.

But other senators were still pushing for the measure, which would bring in about $100 million in revenue to the state.

“When you are talking about laying off 9,000 people (in the state workforce) it doesn’t make sense to take $100 million off the table,” said Environmental Conservation Committee Chairman Antoine Thompson, D-Buffalo.

The Legislature and Gov. David Paterson are seeking to pass a budget for the 2009-10 fiscal year by the April 1 deadline. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, D-Manhattan, said Thursday that budget bills could be printed Saturday to ensure an on-time budget.

Lawmakers continue to debate increasing income taxes on the wealthy. The latest plan by Senate Democrats focuses on raising income taxes on households who make more than $500,000 a year.

“I think the final budget deal will include some of kind progressive income tax reform,” said Sen. Eric Schneiderman, D-Manhattan. “What the numbers will be hasn’t been closed yet.”

Lawmakers also are nearing a deal to change New York’s drug-sentencing laws that would repeal mandatory minimum prison sentences for people convicted of low-level drug felonies. The deal, which officials said is still be negotiated, would allow judges to send some offenders to treatment facilities instead of prison.

Supporters are seeking at least $50 million in the budget to fund new treatment programs.

“It’s something for me that’s a signature issue,” said Sen. Ruth Hassell-Thompson, D-Mount Vernon.

But Senate Republicans ripped a potential deal at a news conference today, saying it would release more than 5,000 drug felons from prison.

“Crime will be up this time next year if this becomes law,” said Sen. Martin Golden, R-Brooklyn. “Families will suffer, people will die. Guaranteed.”

Lawmakers have reached a “tentative understanding’’ that money for the Empire State Games, which Gov. Paterson proposed cutting, will be restored in the final state budget, a key lawmaker said today.

“I’m not telling you with certainty that we have a resolution on this,’’ said Assembly Tourism Committee Chairman Steven Englebright, D-Suffolk County. “I am saying we’re moving strongly in the direction of restoration.’’

But he said putting back the $3 million won’t save this summer’s games, scheduled to be held in July in Poughkeepsie, although it will save the winter and senior games, “as well as a full schedule next year,’‘  he said.

Englebright warned that a deal could fall apart at the last minute as the final touches are put on a spending plan. It’s supposed to be finished by next Wednesday,

He said the restoration is also favored by Senate Tourism Committee Chairman Jose Serrano, D-Bronx. He couldn’t be reached immediately.

Mount Vernon’s mayor Clinton Young gave his State of the City address on Wednesday, repeatedly mentioning his administration’s focus on youth initiatives.

I analyzed the text of his speech (using the site Wordle.net) to figure out which words he used the most. The size of the words below indicate the frequency he mentioned them. Make your own conclusions:

The state Labor Department today released February unemployment numbers that show a loss of 25,900 jobs in the month, bringing the total loss of jobs in New York to 145,800 since August.

The unemployment rate rose from 7 percent in January to 7.8 percent in February, the highest level since June 1993. It’s the largest jump in one month on record.

New York City’s rate climbed from 6.9 percent in January to 8.1 percent in February, its highest rate since October 2003 and a record jump in one month.

“New York State’s recession deepened in February 2009. In the past six months, the state has lost almost 150,000 private sector jobs, while the state’s unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in more than 15 years. Outside of New York City, the region’s unemployment rate stood at a 25-year high,” said Peter A. Neenan, director of the Labor Department’s Division of Research and Statistics.

Rochester-area billionaire Tom Golisano today urged the state Legislature to reject higher taxes as part of the state budget, saying he would put his money through his Responsible New York committee into candidates who reject higher taxes.

“We’re going in the wrong direction here,” he told reporters at the Capitol. “The last thing you do in a recession is to raise taxes on your population. They need the money to survive.”

Golisano, who ran three times for governor on the Independence Party line, pumped $5 million in Responsible New York last year to help candidates in last year’s legislative races. While the group insisted it was bi-partisan and did support Republicans and Democrats, Golisano said the group did have a “leaning toward the Democratic Party.”

But he said the budget will be a test this year and if the lawmakers he supported aren’t pushing for lower taxes, the group would put its resources elsewhere.

“That’s the great thing about what we are about is that we are interested in the end result,” he said.

Golisano wouldn’t say how much money he’s putting behind the ongoing effort, but said:

“We can tangibly say to those people that vote against the budget, that Responsible New York is here to stand behind you and think you are doing the right thing,” he said. “And if the leaders, or the speakers, or the special interests won’t support you, we will.”

Golisano was expected to meet with some legislators today, including Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, D-Queens.

Think the 20 Congressional District race has national importance?

Today Vice President Joe Biden cut a radio ad for Democratic candidate Scott Murphy, a day after President Obama endorsed Murphy in an email to supporters.

Republican candidate James Tedisco, meanwhile, picked up the endorsement of the New York Post, which says “In his 27 years in the Assembly, he’s shown an appreciation for fiscal restraint and tax relief—something needed in Washington now more than ever.”

Here’s the script on Biden’s ad:

“This is Vice President Joe Biden. As a graduate of Syracuse Law School, I not only root for the orange, I root for Upstate New York as well. That’s why this special election you’ll be holding next Tuesday, March 31st is so important to me.

“I’m supporting Scott Murphy for Congress, and so is President Obama. Scott’s a businessman who helped create over 1,000 jobs. He knows people have to work together to get things done, and he’ll work with Democrats and Republicans in Congress to get things done for Upstate New York.

That’s why Scott supports our economic recovery plan, because it means 76,000 jobs for Upstate and funding for schools, which helps keep property taxes down. We have a lot of work to do, and Scott will help get it done. So I hope you’ll vote next Tuesday. And I hope you’ll join President Obama and me, Joe Biden, in supporting Scott Murphy. He’s a businessman who knows how to create jobs for Upstate New York.”

so-important-sm-23r-09