McHugh appointment might haunt Dems
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- June
- 3
The move by President Obama to name North Country Republican Congressman John McHugh as secretary of the Army at first blush looks like a shrewd political move since it gives Democrats a chance to capture his seat in a special election, giving them all but two of the state’s 29 House members.
But there was buzz at the Capitol today about a potential unintended consequence that could prove harmful to Democrats in the long run.
Here’s the scenario:
State Sen. Darrel Aubertine, D-Watertown, decides to make the race. (He said he is considering it). He wins, vacating his Senate seat. A Republican wins a special election to take his place, deadlocking the state Senate at 31 Republicans and 31 Democrats. With no lieutenant governor to break the tie, it’s uncertain how the Senate would function.
Then in the 2010 elections, the Republicans regain control of the Senate. and therefore keep a hand in the reapportionment process that will redraw both House and legislative districts in the state. The consensus now is that if Democrats control both the Assembly and Senate after next year’s elections and get to draw all districts without Republican input, the GOP is dead in the Legislature and in the House in New York for the foreseeable future.
So the move might net the Dems one seat now, but cost them dearly later.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 at 4:30 pm by Jay Gallagher.
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well if it’s that cut and dried, then Darrel’s choice is clear- stay where he is, enjoy what he’s doing, and leave the worrying to the Repubs.
The problem here is that everyone believes Darrel Aubertine is a legit candidate here. Darrel Aubertine is a joke of a politician who has gotten by in one campaign with class warfare and the second with the Blue wave that hit with Obama.
You run Darrel on his merits, but himself he’ll lie, cheat and steal, but this time, whether it’s November 2009 or November 2010 he will lose.
This coming from a Republican who voted for him twice, but as the band The WHO sung is not about “to be fooled again.”
“The Senate will not be able to function” lol…that is a laught..anyone been to Albany lately? Nothing is functioning down there….Dems wanted control of the Senate and now that they have it, they dont know how to run it.
I do not see any viable candidates out there for the McHugh seat, Dem or Repub. It will all be politics as usual, lots of talk, no action.
RE: 23rd CD Opening…..
Assemblywomen Deirdre K. Scozzafava is Wayyyyy Too Much Liberal Baggage for An Adirondack GOP’er to run for Congress. In my opinion, she could never obtain the NY State Conservative Party Line which is needed to obtain a victory for the GOP.
If I was a Dem Consultant – Here is how I would win this congressional race….I would run a Blue Collar/DINO/Conservative Democrat against this RINO/Liberal Republican Dierdre Scozzafava …...Conservatives will sit home and the Dem’s will win again.
Deirdre K. Scozzafava took the Pro Choice Pledge with NY State NOW!
Signed by Deirdre K. Scozzafava (122 nd, R)
Dierdre Scozzafava Co-Sponsor of & voted for Medical Legalization of Marijuana…......
Assembly members voted 89 to 52 in favor of the Gay Marriage Bill (A7732).....Dierdre Scozzafava is a Republican who voted for this bill…...
Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns (Now on Facebook)
LET’S SEE Darrel Aubertine writes laws to prevent people from hiring family in the senate. Then he goes and hires his sister. He did not think he was soing anything wrong? Ok, so now he leads the energy committee. He will now be able to steer the senate so he can land the dozen or so WIND TURBINES ON HIS LAND IN CAPE VINCENT. He is a crook in my eyes…..
If teh State republican party is following Jim Kelly’s playbook no wonder the state is becoming a darker shade of blue!
The Conservatives and Republicans, instead of tending to business, have been laughing for so long at the Democrats, they unwittingly laughed themselves apart, and into the very impotent factions that they thought were so laughable.
that is exactly the problem in new york…supposed conservatives have hijaked the party so that candidates
for office have to hold litmus test views on social
issues…no republican can support medical marijuana..
where the hell does the conservative party come off
to dictate what a doctor should and should not prescribe
Greetings Albany Allison…
FYI…The NY-GOP has NOT followed the playbook, if they followed just a touch of it, things can be different for the Party
love to know what jim kelly feels about the westchester
conservatives endorsing andy spano…party out of control
jim?
As per Party By-Laws…
County endorsements are in complete control of the County.
UNLESS…Any seat crosses over that County line into another County, then determination falls with State Executive Committee down in Brooklyn.
This is the reason Spano always told Bruno to never put his seat over the County lines while redistricting, CP would have thrown him overboard long time ago.
BTW…This crap goes on (Stealing of elections by proxies etc) in all Parties in all Counties. This is the one thing that sometimes makes me want to leave this sport.
I am getting to old for this crap.
RE: NY Republican State Committee Receives Planning Commission Report …aka….(New Party Game Plans)...
It Reports direction the New York State Republican Party would be taking in light of the steady decline of NY-GOP Party and its principles in our state, most recently evinced by the historic losses in the 2008 elections.
My response to this ? Clap, Clap, Yeah, YAWN –
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
First of all, my sincere appreciation and hand goes out to Commission Chairman Andrew S. Eristoff who complied a report which took much time and effort. His report had comprised of common sense answers to those others who are caught in the Generation Gap.
Actually….I clearly (As others do as well) tell this to many, many other organizations as well.
Some have listen and some did not….The ones who listened, grow in membership and with youth experience…And the organizations who did not listen, sadly fall into despair & fold.
Ok, The NY-GOP needs to think of 2010 as the 4th quarter with two minutes left in the game….GOP should Invest now on data banks of core conservative & GOP base organizations & colleges and reach out now for momentum to victory.
Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns (Now on Facebook)
RE: Congressional Seat in the 23rd….
BTW…Liz Benjamin directed us to a more positive GOP Demographic report/story written by Jay DeDapper. (Which is exactly my feeling!)
Jay points out two important factors that clearly should be taken into account regarding the upcoming Congressional Race. In short, the 20th CD is NOT the 23rd CD.
Everyone focused on the large registration advantage the GOP had in the 20th without paying much attention to the fact that there were more Independent voters. (43% Rep, 31% Dem, 24% Ind in the 23rd – versus – 42% Rep, 27% Dem, 34 Ind in the 20th).
Composition of that Independent vote in the 23rd is “clearly” different from that in the 20th CD. In the 20th CD there is a Heavy influx of NYC liberals in Columbia and Dutchess Counties and a similarly big increase in tech professionals in Albany’s eastern and northern suburbs.
In the 23rd CD there are more Conservative Independents.
http://jaydedapper.com/2009/06/02/23-is-not-20/comment-page-1/#comment-1293
Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns (Now on Facebook)
National Political Magazine “Human Events” writer John Gizzi mentions NY Special Election in the 23rd. Writes my comments on one candidate that might have serious trouble obtaining the critical NY State Conservative Party Line for that very important seat.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=32117