1. you do not know who will turn out..ie are motivated
anti tax and spend voters going to vote in large
per centages than those who are “happy” the way things are

2. among non party registered voters spano’s negatives
are absolutely too high and amongh all voters they are 46%
incumbants do not usually win re-election under these
circumstances

3. the poll did not and nor can you tell us whether
astorino is climbing ..the poll is a snapshot of a single
point in time..and therefore astorino who is spending
dollars this last week may very well be moving up

4. the poll may be failing to measure passion..ie those
who are angry may be more passionate about their anger
then those who say they support spano

5. you cannot factor in the anti obama sentiment that is
on the rise…a case of buyers’s remorse for those of us
who thought that obama would be a moderate post partisan
president not a government takeover leftist..and one way
to undo what voters did last november is to vote against
an incumbant tax and spend liberal like andy spano

6. astorino’s name id is not relevant to ousting an unpopular incumbant..remember george pataki…mario
cuomo lost..pataki didn’t win

7. and finally the poll may simply have it wrong..
did you examine the sample and the questions…no
of course you did not..do you know how the sample
is pulled..no of course you do not..

ie in the absence of any conclusions with regard to
the above your opinion is a guess…not based in anything
empirical..and not worth five cents in the world
of statistical analysis