Politics on the Hudson

   Forty-five percent of registered Democrats in New York told the Marist Poll that they are concerned a victory like Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown’s to the U.S. Senate could happen in New York. But 29 percent of those polled said they are not very worried and 26 percent said they are not worried at all.

   “The Massachusetts race caught the eye of many New York Democrats,” said Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion.  ”Many are worried but not panicking.”

   But 51 percent of all registered voters in the state don’t think it makes any difference whether a Democrat or Republican is elected to represent New York in the U.S. Senate. Nearly 30 percent said it’s more important to have a Democrat in Washington and 20 percent think it would be better to have a Republican, the poll found.

   “All things begin equal, the edge in New York is still with the Democrats when it comes to picking a U.S. senator, although many voters are up for grabs,” Miringoff said.

   Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat who was appointed to the post last year, would get 44 percent of the Democratic vote in a hypothetical primary against former Tennessee U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who would get 27 percent of the vote, and labor activist Jonathan Tasini would receive 4 percent. But 25 percent of voters said they are undecided. Ford moved to New York a few years ago and has been touring parts of the state to drum up support.

   Gillibrand polled well in New York City’s suburbs and upstate, but in New York City, she received 37 percent of the vote compared to 31 percent for Ford and 3 percent for Tasini. Twenty-eight percent of New York City Democrats said they were unsure, according to the poll. Gillibrand got 52 percent of the votes in the suburbs and 52 percent upstate, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent for Ford, respectively. Tasino got 8 percent of the support in the suburbs and 3 percent upstate. Twenty-three percent of suburban Democrats are undecided and 22 percent of upstate Democrats are unsure how they would vote.

   Forty-eight percent of Democratic voters have never heard of Gillibrand or don’t know how to rate her, compared to 67 percent for Ford. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats have a favorable view and 15 percent have an unfavorable view of Gillibrand. Twenty-percent have a favorable opinion of Ford and 13 percent do not, the poll found.

   In a mid-January Marist poll, 48 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Gillibrand, 32 percent were unsure how to rate her and 20 percent had an unfavorable view.   “Both Gillibrand and Ford lack strong political identities in New York.  The fisticuffs between them are forcing each to depend on political goodwill they don’t have,” Miringoff said. “The number of Democrats who don’t have an opinion of each has soared over the past two weeks.”

   If former Gov. George Pataki, a Republican, ran against Gillibrand, he would get the votes of 49 percent of registered voters and Gillibrand would pick up 43 percent, with 8 percent unsure. In January, 45 percent of voters said they would support Gillibrand and 42 said they would back Pataki.

   Republican Bruce Blakeman would receive 30 percent of the vote, compared to 52 percent for Gillibrand, the poll said.

   Marist polled 838 New York voters between Jan. 25 and 27.

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