Poll shows Hall and Hayworth in “dead heat.”

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A new poll has Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains, and his challenger, Republican Dr. Nan Hayworth of Mount Kisco, neck and neck in the race for the 19th Congressional District with less than four weeks until Election Day.

According to the RNN-TV/Westchester County Association poll released this morning, 42 percent of voters said they would go with Hall and 42 percent said Hayworth. The poll has a margin of error of 3.75 percent.

Hall is seeking his third term and some political observers in recent days and weeks have been labelling the race as a toss-up. See here and here.

You can see the poll, conducted by Iona College, below.

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20 Comments

  1. the consultant on

    here is what the poll fails to measure….INTENSITY…
    it cannot measure who is more likely to vote those
    who are totally dissatisfied with the president or
    those who support his policies…and the answer to
    that should be obvious…eg even in new york state
    Obama has a very low approval rating under 50%..in
    that marginal congressional district it has to be
    even lower…john hall represents a congress that has
    an even lower approval rating and a congress that is
    controlled by the presidents party..this race will
    not be as close as it looks …nan hayworth 54% john
    hall 46%

  2. Homespun Wisdom on

    The more people get to know Nan the Sham, the less inclined they will be to vote for her. When folks hear her talking about dismantling Social Security and cutting taxes for billionaires, they’ll see she is not committed, at all, to helping seniors and those of us who have to work for a living. Also, she’s running with another multi-millionaire with no history of public service whatsoever, Carl Paladino, and folks need answers now, not bluster and rage.

  3. “Homespun Wisdom” is a Hall staffer, I’ve seen those same lines all over the place. The point is, Hall is running against a reasonable, intelligent Washington outsider. Hall hasn’t talked about his most important votes (“stimulus,” health care, TARP) in his ads because he knows the majority of his constituents opposed them. Agreed with BiPartisan Observer, it’s only a matter of time.

  4. smartporpoise on

    It’s palpably obvious that ALL these bloggers who rail for the same candidate over and over and over with the same lame statements using various phony sobriquets are staffers and dimwitted staffers, at that.

  5. @ smartporpoise
    Don’t judge other people by yourself. Nan Hayworth and her husband have bought up most of the group medical practices in this congressional district. What we have here is close to a medical monopoly — called the Mount Kisco Medical Group. MKMG’s tentacles now reach all the way to Pougkeepsie. So it’s no wonder that Nan Hayworth wants to do away with any supervision the government might impose over the medical insurance industry, or the doctor business. For greedy Nan, it’s all about $$$$$ and $. Ka-ching, Nan. Gesundheit!

  6. maybe as someone in the business nan understands all too
    well that obamacare means higher costs for everyone including you..but no matter she wins hall looses..take
    it to the bank

  7. What Obamacare means is that Nan and Scott won’t be able to charge patients — including nearly everybody in the district — anything they please. And if any place would benefit from a bit more medical accountability it’s the Mt. Kisco Medical Group. And you just might not enjoy paying the 23 percent sales tax she is supporting, on just about everything, including medical care. Nan may or may not win — I’m not clairvoyant, and neither are you. I hope people are not foolish enough to elect her. I certainly wouldn’t vote for her with a bargepole.

  8. Philip Roberts on

    From a British perspective,the midterms look like a foregone conclusion as the Republicans have the advantage of a President who has lost his drive and ability to explain and persuade , as well as millions of dollars in their war chest thanks to the Health Insurance companies and drug companies.Add the pernicious out and out propaganda of Fox “News” and the Republicans look set for victory next month. Don’t let your democracy be corrupted by money and a biased media!Vote against tax cuts for the rich.Vote against condemning veterans to a life of poverty.

  9. OK, we all know John Hall voted FOR the stimulus, health care and tarp.

    What is next on the Obama Pelosi agenda? Immigration? Cap and Tax? How will John Hall vote on those issues?

    My guess, is lockstep with Pelosi, who he voted with 98% of the time.

    No idea who Nan Hayworth is, but it hopefully she will vote the opposite of Hall.

  10. As people learn more about what Nan Hayworth wants to do if she gets to Washington, they will reject her extreme positions. She wants to turn Social Security over to the same Hedge Fund Managers and Inventment Bankers who caused the crash. She wants to take away Medicare and force seniors to buy insurance from the HMOs. These are extremists positions.

    Save Social Security and Medicare! Re-elect John Hall!

  11. nan certainly does not want to do anything drastic about
    social security or medicare..where do you get you nonsense
    from..its a total misrepresentation of nan’s brand
    of moderate republicanism…hall on the other hand supports
    obama pelosi and reid 100% of the time…that’s the choice
    and that’s why hall loses

  12. Nan Hayworth does in fact want to take drastic action to cut Social Security. Here is the pertinent quote from her own web site:

    “Freeze non-military discretionary spending and terminate, privatize, or defer to the states programs not essential to fulfillment of the federal government’s constitutional responsibilities.”

    That means Social Security, Medicare, and Education. I went to look it up because these posts made me curious about her.

    Also, Hayworth is up front about tax cuts for the very wealthiest Americans. Again, from her site:

    – permanent extension of the 2001 and 2003 federal tax cuts,
    – reduction of the capital gains tax,
    – elimination of the estate tax.

    I am not working for Hall’s campaign. I just believe the proposals from Hayworth are bound to hurt average American workers and taxpayers. I support Hall’s moves towards a sensible health care plan, more stimulus for workers, and a more equitable tax system.

  13. Despite the noise Hall – Hayworth breaks down into two choices:
    .
    Allow private initiative and encourage entrepreneurs who, many DemoLibs may be discouraged to admit, are often wealthy, to invest in new ventures, hire people and make money . . . presuming they satisfy clients and customers who pay them ONLY if their products and services are superior.

    OR . . .

    Tax people more and more, take 5~15% out for government oversight, and then spend it on initiatives and “stimuli” that the experts think will actually grow the economy and create jobs as per Soviet-style 5 years plans, etc. This relies on forceful end-of-gun financing, since even citizens who don’t believe in a government program, they still have to pay for it — more and more of them as government keeps getting bigger.

    One way restores power, initiative and wealth to private citizens and businesses (oh goodness, a rich person – they must be evil!), the other way is more equal and destroys initiative, freedom and ultimately wealth.
    .
    That’s the choice.

  14. Hayworth is either delusional or cynical. She thinks you can cut taxes on the top 2%, while not touching Medicare, Social Security, or Defense, and still balance the budget? Good luck. That’s about 80% of the Federal budget. You are going to balance it by cutting the other 20%? Sorry, the math on that doesn’t work.

    Or she will cut Social Security and Medicare to balance the budget, or raise taxes? Which is it? She hasn’t said. She says you can have it all. When a politician tells you something that sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

    Republicans are pretending that Obama created the deficit, while the simple fact is that it was in place before any Obama policies even took effect. He inherited a $1.3 trillion deficit. And his healthcare plan has already created massive savings in the long-run.

    Vote against Hayworth. She’s a nut who cannot add.

  15. Actually Doug, that is not the choice. Your framing contains a few errors.

    The reason private investment is so low is because there are no investment opportunities. Look at U.S. Treasury yields. Investors are willing to lend the government money at incredibly low rates, suggesting that there are not adequate opportunities to deploy capital on riskier ventures.

    What we are seeing is in fact the opposite of the “crowding out” phenomenon to which you allude. Everything you say would be correct if rates were high. Then we would see government competing with the private sector for funds. But that is not the current situation.

    Why are there no investment opportunities? Because aggregate demand is low. Why is aggregate demand low? Because everyone wants to save and nobody wants to spend. But we cannot all save at the same time. It may be rational for a single person to save, but when everyone does it at the same time, we end up in a depression. What is rational for the individual is not always rational for the economy as a whole.

    This is the Paradox of Thrift, and it is very real, whether or not admitting it is popular. And that is where the Federal government comes in, as a balancing agent.

    I see no indication that Hayworth understands this. She is actually worried about inflation. Sorry, but you have to be completely insane to be worried about inflation with this much slack in the economy. Deflation is the threat, and Doug and Hayworth’s solution would make it much worse.

    Vote against Hayworth. We need someone with a brain.

  16. the dead heat poll is not really a dead heat..because
    the polling data does not differentiate among likely
    voters..for example on a scale of 1-10 how likely
    are the voters in the poll to vote…intensity is
    the unknown factor and this year republicans have that
    going for them…there are far more tea party voters
    than democrats who are intense and who will turnout
    its why john hall cannot win

  17. Doug R: You are just cold making stuff up. The only people who Democrats are trying to tax are people who have a portion of their income that is over $250k, and that portion will be taxed at a slightly higher rate. That’s all. Your comments about money for government oversight and Soviet-style whatever are just the product of a a way too vivid imagination. And the stimulus worked. Plus, those wealthy, well-educated entrepreneurial types are usually Democrats, so there’s that.

  18. Emma, child, as matter of indisputable FACT, just starting here at home, The NYS Democrats pushed through 9 Billion in new State taxes this year alone, and EVERY PENNY was directed at people who breathe, income regardless.