Siena poll finds Hayworth leading by 13 percentage points

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Freshman Republican Nan Hayworth of Bedford leads Manhattan attorney Sean Maloney 46 percent to 33 percent in the Hudson Valley’s redrawn 18th Congressional District, according to a Siena poll released this morning.

Working Families Party candidate Larry Weissmann had the support of 10 percent of likely voters and 11 percent were undecided.

The district covers Putnam and Orange counties as well as parts of northern Westchester and the southwest corner of Dutchess.

Maloney issued a statement this morning saying he expects the Working Families Party to nominate him as their replacement candidate for the 18th Congressional District after the current candidate, Weissmann, is nominated as a candidate for state Supreme Court. After that happens, Maloney expects to cut Hayworth’s lead in the polls.

Likely voters in the 18th CD favor Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama, with the Republican presidential candidate leading 49 percent to 45 percent. Statewide polls have found Obama with a wide lead in New York.

Voters in this district also support repeal of the 2010 Affordable Care Act by 49 percent to 45 percent even though other polls have found the health insurance reform law enjoys statewide support.

Maloney purchased a carriage house in Cold Spring in May and has taken a leave absence from his law practice, but his partner and three children still live in Manhattan.

The newcomer has a name recognition problem, with 54 percent of likely voters saying they don’t know enough about him to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. Among those who do know Maloney, 27 percent had a favorable opinion and 19 percent rated him unfavorably.

Only 15 percent were unfamiliar with Hayworth, who received a favorable rating of 48 percent. Her unfavorable rating was 37 percent.

Overall the poll found Maloney trails Hayworth by 13 points among men and by 14 points among women.

Hayworth’s lead was the biggest in the Dutchess County section of the congressional district, where she was ahead 53 percent to 31 percent.

She held a slightly smaller lead of  51 percent to 33 percent in the Putnam and Westchester sections of the district.

The race is the tightest west of the Hudson River in Orange County where Hayworth leads by 40 percent to 34 percent over Maloney, the poll found.

The Sept. 12 to 16 survey of 628 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

 

 

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  1. Nan Hayworth will not win this race once Maloney’s history of working in the Clinton White House is well known. Hayworth is not that popular in this district. She ran as Tea Party in 2010 and she votes with them. People up here are Clinton Republicans, and although Obama may not be that popular Romney’s negatives are growing everyday. If Clinton comes out and supports Maloney he should win.