Hudson Valley House race compared to 2 years ago

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Freshman Rep. Chris Gibson’s polling lead over Democratic challenger Julian Schreibman in the new 19th Congressional District is remarkably similar to the lead former Rep. Scott Murphy enjoyed over Gibson at the same time two years ago, before the district was redrawn.
Gibson, of Kinderhook, said there’s no significance to the numbers, which are eerily similar.
Schreibman’s campaign manager disagrees.
A Siena poll released Friday found Gibson leading Schreibman, of Stone Ridge, by 16 percentage points, 52 percent to 36 percent. A September 2010 Siena poll had Murphy ahead of Gibson by 17 percentage points, 54 percent to 37 percent.
As Election Day 2010 approached and voters were barraged with seemingly endless TV ads and mailers, Gibson eliminated Murphy’s lead and led by 6 percentage points in a later Siena poll.
Gibson said in an interview Friday he had grassroots support in 2010 even when he was behind in the polls, running as a largely unknown retired Army colonel. He says that’s still the case.
“I found very strong support on the ground when I went around two years ago,’’ he said. “The people who know me support me.’’
Schreibman’s campaign manager, Jonathan Levy, said Gibson’s surge after the September 2010 poll shows this year’s race is far from decided.
“Most voters have not yet had a chance to learn about how Congressman Gibson voted to end Medicare’s guarantee of coverage,’’ Levy said in a statement that also noted Gibson’s vote to defund Planned Parenthood.
Gibson currently represents the 20th Congressional District, which was redrawn to become the new 19th District after New York lost two of its 29 House seats. The redrawn district includes areas currently represented by Democrat Maurice Hinchey of Saugerties, who is retiring at the end of the year.
The redrawn district now covers the upper Hudson Valley and Catskill region. It stretches from Dutchess County northward to Rensselaer County and westward to the town of Sanford in Broome County. The district extends northwest up to Otsego County and part of Montgomery County.
In the Siena poll, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the district 49 percent to 45 percent. The Sept. 17-18 phone survey of 635 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said 11 percent of those surveyed planned to split their vote by supporting Obama and Gibson. Only 1 percent planned to split their vote between Romney and Schreibman.
Schreibman needs to boost his standing among members of his own party. The survey found that only 69 percent of Democrats support Schreibman while Gibson enjoys 83 percent support among fellow Republicans.
Gibson also led among independent voters not affiliated with a major party, 50 percent to 34 percent.
The race is a virtual dead heat in Dutchess and Ulster counties, where Gibson’s slight lead (44 percent to 42 percent) is within the poll’s margin of error. Much of that territory is currently represented by Hinchey.
Greenberg said he doubts Schreibman can make up enough ground to overtake Gibson by Election Day. But he added, “Could it happen? Absolutely.’’

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  1. hey schreibman i am a registered dem and i have not heard from you and i am on email lists you should have borrowed by now…….but don’t worry you have my vote……..but you gotta get out more
    we don’t need no republicans in congress !