Siena poll: Schreibman cuts Gibson’s lead to 5 points

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Freshman Republican Rep. Chris Gibson’s lead over Democratic challenger Julian Schreibman has narrowed to 5 percentage points from the 16 point lead he held in September.
That’s the findings from a poll of likely voters conducted Saturday and Sunday by Siena College, which also conducted the earlier September survey in New York’s 19th Congressional District covering the upper Hudson Valley and Catskills region.

Siena found Gibson, a retired Army colonel from Kinderhook in Columbia County, supported by 48 percent of likely voters, while Schreibman, an attorney and former federal prosecutor from Stone Ridge in Ulster County, was supported by 43 percent.
The earlier Siena poll found Gibson leading Schreibman, 52 percent to 36 percent.
The new poll confirms what independent political handicappers have been saying for months: The race is essentially a tossup.
Gibson’s 5 percentage point lead is just beyond the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Gibson currently represents New York’s 20th Congressional District, but redistricting has moved him into the redrawn 19th Congressional District where about half of the district is new and much of the new territory is now represented by retiring Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey of Ulster County.
Gibson holds a big lead of 59 percent to 34 percent in the Capital region which includes large parts of his current district, but Schreibman held an edge in the southern and western ends of the district where much of the territory is new, the new Siena poll found.
In Dutchess and Ulster counties, Schreibman led Gibson, 49 percent to 42 percent. The Democratic challenger also led 45 percent to 43 percent in Broome, Delaware, Sullivan and Otsego counties.

Almost $8 million in campaign funds have poured into the race through Oct. 17, including $4.9 million in independent expenditures by third party groups and more than $3 million in donations to the two candidates, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Gibson has a nearly two-to-one fundraising advantage, having received just under $2 million compared to the just over $1 million raised by Schreibman.

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  1. Our opinion: We endorse Chris Gibson, Paul Tonko and Bill Owens.

    The House of Representatives for the last two years has been a symbol of Washington inaction. The success of the tea party added a new dynamic to the chamber, creating in an already partisan atmosphere an almost constant tension between uncompromising conservative dogma and the moderation needed to govern in a two-party system.

    It’s with that dysfunction in mind — and the need for Congress to get moving on the fiscal, economic and energy issues facing the country — that voters must evaluate candidates this year.

    19th District: Chris Gibson

    We don’t always agree with him. But on his best days, Rep. Chris Gibson is the kind of representative New Yorkers need in Washington: thoughtful, moderate and independent.

    That is not to disregard the fact that Mr. Gibson hasn’t always displayed those attributes during his first term. His opponent, Democrat Julian Schreibman, notes that Mr. Gibson has often sided with his party’s right wing. He voted to repeal Obamacare and initially supported the Ryan budget that would have sustained the deficit-creating Bush-era tax cuts. His opposition to any further restriction on firearms, even in the aftermath of the horrific killings during his term in Colorado and Arizona, is hard to comprehend.

    But Mr. Gibson has indeed grown in office. He has more recently rejected the Ryan budget in favor of a proposal that would balance the budget through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. He teamed up with Democrats for a bipartisan compromise on the Farm Bill, going so far as to sign a petition to force a floor vote, which would then allow the House and Senate to negotiate a final bill.

    Mr. Gibson, a retired Army colonel, has also broken with conservative ranks on defense spending by saying the military could withstand substantial cuts. He also says he supports a woman’s right to choose abortion and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

    Mr. Schreibman, an attorney, is more progressive on many issues, from women’s rights to Obamacare. On energy, he’s the more enthusiastic of the two on alternatives, particularly renewable biofuels.

    But at a time when Congress needs people more interested in results than rhetoric, Mr. Gibson has emerged as one of its more refreshing voices. An analysis by the non-partisan Open Congress found him to be the third most independent Republican in Congress and the 18th most independent member overall. Regardless of who’s in charge of the House next year, it will need smart, moderate voices like Mr. Gibson’s.

  2. I must have omitted it at the top but that was the Albany Times Union that endorsed Chris Gibson.

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