Westchester exec race: Bramson campaign releases poll showing close race (updated)

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The campaign of Noam Bramson, the Democratic candidate for Westchester County executive, released a poll Tuesday afternoon showing the two candidates within four percentage points of each other.

Bramson has 43 percent of the vote and Republican County Executive Rob Astorino has 47 percent. The campaign said that puts them within the margin of error. Bramson has made up ground since Labor Day, when he was 14 points behind, the campaign said.

“That’s a neck-and-neck race, within the margin of error, with Rob Astorino well under 50% (an important threshold for an incumbent),” Kim DiTomasso, the campaign’s finance director, said in an email. “Astorino tried to put Noam away early with a wave of negative, dishonest ads starting over the summer. It didn’t work. Instead, Noam is closing fast.”

Bill O’Reilly, a spokesman for the Astorino campaign, said he is ahead by a wider margin than Bramson’s poll says. But he said the Astorino campaign will not release poll numbers because it it against state elections regulations to release part of a poll.

“We are pleased with where we are, but will run until election night as though we’re a single vote behind,” O’Reilly said.

The poll of 400 likely voters was taken Oct. 14-16. The poll also shows Bramson’s message that Astorino is too conservative for Westchester is beginning to stick. More voters now label him a social conservative.

After a big fundraiser Monday night with former President Bill Clinton, the campaign is trying to raise $250,000 in the next 10 days.

Westchester exec campaign: Bramson campaign poll shows tight race

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  1. Bramson should release the poll results along with the exact same questions that were asked of the people they were polling. Push polls are easy to manipulate and if questions are asked in a certain way then you will always get the resuly YOU WANT. I would say with Bramson releasing such data shows that he feels he is going to lose and he is hoping to motivate a base that is flat because he is not a good candidate. Polls don’t push people, taxes do and Mr. Bramson your record on taxes will be to your demise. If you wanted to be honest with the people you were polling, you could have asked, “Would you vote for a candidate who raised taxes every year in office (Bramson)? or would you vote for a candidate who has not raised taxes once during his term in office (Astorino)? The results would have been different, people are not fooled by a push poll trying to move your base.

  2. The polling outfit id a D.C. Based Dem operation so of course the results and spin are skewed! “Momentum Analysis is committed to serving Democratic candidates and progressive causes through sound research and great service. Clients benefit from decades of experience in opinion research and hundreds of campaigns.” the above is from the pollsters’ website. The only poll that matters is on Nov. 5 and it will be a 55045 Astorino Victory!

  3. If this is the best you can do with a company that is bought and paid for by the Democrats. Then then your campaign is really in trouble, Noam should be embarrassed by this pull it indicates that his campaign has not been effective and it would appear that he will lose on election day. Maybe Rob Astorino should put out a real poll or a push poll from his side and it will show a much wider margin of projected victory.

  4. If the best an internal poll can show is that their candidate is down 4 points, it’s unlikely their guy is going to win. It’s probably a 10-12 point race.

  5. This poll was conducted by a democratic push polling company. Look on there page. They admit to asking creative questions A.K.A Push polling.

    Bramson is desperate what other stunt will he pull?

    Noam Bramson is just Greg Ball of the Democratic Party that will do and say anything to be elected.

  6. I think Branson made a major mistake bringing this poll to the public by trying to trick those who he thinks support him into getting motivated to come out and support him, this is the act of a desperate man, shame on Branson.

  7. Here is the problem for Mayor Noam, where he is known he is known as a tax and spender. In most of Westchester if you ask anyone outside of New Rochelle who Noam is you get the same response, “Noam who”. Even in a big city like Yonkers a democratic strong hold, Noam has no steam or backing. If you head north of 287, Mayor Noam is even less known, the west side and the northern side of the county will not vote for Noam because they have no idea who he really is. The only thing people outside of New Rochelle affiliate Mayor Noam with is tax increase after tax increase. No push poll will change that. The residents of Westchester do not want a tax and spender as their CE.

  8. OK, now show us a poll from an objective third-party. Bramson must be running sacred. Of course, in the end, it depends on voter turnout, but this is such a typical ploy to sway things their way. Don’t be fooled. It will be the end of Westchester if Bramson gets in. More long-time residents will join the exodus to other states. At least, Rob Astorino has tried to undo some of the damage from the Spano years and stop the bleeding.

  9. Noam’s problem is he has nothing to run on. So he takes a poll, finds out most voters are pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, so he loudly and proudly touts that he is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. Of course these issues have absolutely nothing to do with the position of County Executive. I mean, what’s his position on Syria, for goodness sakes. For this transgression alone, I would never vote for him.

  10. Just finished watching the debate and I will honestly say there was no game changing moments, both candidates stuck to their positions. What I did find interesting was County Executive Rob Astorino respectfully looking into the TV and asked voters to support him in his closing statements. I also liked the fact the Rob Astorino ran many quality commercials during and immediately after the debate. I think the commercials being run during the debate were brilliant on behalf of the Astorino campaign team.

  11. You gotta be kidding! Did Bramson write that letter himself? I never saw a more one-sided and phony letter/poll in my life. How much did Bramson pay for that trash? Nice try, but it just dug his hole deeper.

  12. All the facts please on

    Kim you appear to know a lot about this race and the candidates….maybe you could fill us all in on Astrorino’s tax record as a School Board Member and Town Councilman. Your campaign, oh sorry mean the Astroino Camp, doesn’t seem to provide any info on such.

  13. I will be more then happy to discuss Rob Astorino’s tax record. In the last four years as County Executive, Rob Astorino has not raised the county taxes one cent as promised in his campaign. On the other hand, Mayor Noam has increased taxes and fees for the residents of New Rochelle every single year he has been Mayor – it is shameful what Mayor Noam Bramson is doing to the people of New Rochell.

  14. Elizabeth, Your article is a hoot! How can you claim to be a journalist and write such crap! I have been reading the several articles that you’ve written about the WCE campaign. Journalists are supposed to have enquiring minds. Yours is definitively closed. You sound like a Noam clone. Have you no mind of your own? Noam Bramson can’t hold a candle to Rob Astorino

  15. the reason why noam bramson will win he is a independant .astorino cheated on the county by firing people and not to many legislators support astorino noam bramson for county executive

  16. Not to many legislators support Rob Astroino? Why then did he get 9 votes to pass his budget last year when there are on 17 legislators? That tells me that the CE does has the support of republcans and democrats. If you talk privately to democrats they will tell you that Mayor Noam is not really one of them, they believe he is out there on his own and does not affiliate so closely with party leaders. Mayor Noam has gotten luck warm endorsements from elected democrats in the area because they must go through the motions. Most whisper behind the scene that Rob Astorino and his record of not raising taxes should and will get him reelected.

  17. StilettoTreeHugger on

    @ Kim … I find it funny how you avoided the question put before you by “All the Facts please”

    You failed to mention Astorino’s record prior to becoming County Executive.

    Would you explain to us Westchester residents, how Astorino is saving Westchester residents money, by borrowing money, that comes with interest rates? So he didn’t raise taxes, instead he’s hiding behind loans, which will cost us more money.

    Also please explain how Astorino plans on paying for the $30,000 daily fine Westchester County is getting hit with, every day for the past 3 years. I’m curious how he plans on paying for that $40 MILLION dollar fine??

    And that’s just ONE lawsuits … You should let Westchester residents know about all the avoidable lawsuits Astorino has caused us.

    And since Tea Party & Repblicans like talking about “Apples not falling far from trees” … can you please explain to Westchester tax payers about how Astorino’s father was sent to prison for being a Corrupt Mount Vernon cop that shook down the community?

  18. StilettoTreeHugger on

    Oh excuse me … Kim … also … would you explain to us Westchester residents about why the county is getting the $30,000 daily fine in the first place? Water filtration upgrades.

    I like drinking safe healthy water, so why is it that Astorino is risking the lives of Westchester residents.

    I would also like to know why Astorino closed down the Mental Health clinics throughout Westchester and forced all these patients onto Mount Vernon’s residents. As if Mount Vernon doesn’t have it’s fair share of problems, brought to us by Westchester county.

    Astorino has forced Mount Vernon to be the social service city for the entire county … not only serving Mount Vernon resident but ALLLL of Westchester counties residents.

    Also, I would like to hear more about Astorino’s vision of Child Care and why he refuses to pay the bills of contracts to Child Care facilities, after do his best to force parents from affordable child care, which helps them keep their jobs. Is this Astorino’s way of keeping Women in the kitchen and out of the workforce??

    All you talk about is how Astorino didn’t raise taxes … that’s like Bush saying the Wars paid for themselves. It’s called borrowing money, which comes with compounded interest rates, so that dollar he borrowed, actually costs Westchester residents approx a $1.25 – $1.50 for each dollar borrowed.

    Not sure how any of Astorino’s policies can be considered cost effective and beneficial for Westchester residents.

    Oh and let’s not forget about that Federal Lawsuit brought to us by Astorino … Astorino is putting all of his cronie lawyers friends to work. Must be good to be his friend. They’re making a nice chuck of change from the residents of Westchester.

  19. Concerned Voters on

    Watched the “Debate” last night on snooze 12. (Please get rid of that Rose why dont you?)

    Astorino is a robotic pathological liar taking credit for anything positive while then spewing more venom lies towards Noam Bramson.
    He has blasted the Board of Legislators for 4 years, has blasted the Westchester workers for 4 years, has tried to “divide and conquer” for 4 years, has denigrated community groups for the work they do, has closed needed mental health service that are now NOT being provided by “not-for-profits” (how many more train track pushings do we foresee?), and has squandered millions of needed community grants for localities in Westchester with his losing nonsense with the Federal government.

    Noam Bramson has our vote and this poll shows it. A carpet bombing campaign on TV and radio using $11 million dollars by Astorino will cause thousands more to come out and vote him out on November 5.

    It did not work in New Jersey with the Christie maneuver to attempt to confuse voters by having an election on a WEDNESDAY. Voters are smart and voted Booker to the Senate in DC!
    Same will happen in Westchester. Astorino and his hatred, and his hack Pearl from New Rochelle, can go somewhere else as of Nov 6

  20. So when the message if bad just kill the messenger…typical Republican nonsense…

    Astorino last night even whined about the League of Women Voters Fair Campaign Committee who accurately called his TV commercial accusations as the 5 LIES that they are.

    see here:
    http://bit.ly/19TtlR4

    But better to kill the messenger Joyce and Kim and bill and north of the hutch and Bob and other political patronage shills placing comments from the Westchester County computers during the workday on Westchester payroll.

    Astorino and his corrupt Republican “cooperation” with 2 renegade paid off Democrats (Kaplowitz and Perez) passed a budget that fired 73 credentialed, qualified career workers and kept 67 POLITICAL PATRONAGE HACKS as well as 47 VACANCIES so more hacks could be hired since Jan 2 2013. That is the dirty Astorino we hate.

  21. The Bramson haters can call Rob Astorino all the names they want and they can accuse his of anything they wish. But they cannot say he raised taxes during his term as County Executive as he promised. I would say a man who makes a promise not to raise taxes and fulfills his commitment to the residents of Westchester County is far from a liar.

    I ask the Mayor Noam fans to tell me what percent did Mayor Noam raise taxes in the last four years in New Rochelle? You may need a calculator to add those numbers.

    This race is not about guns, abortion or the tea party, the race is about what candidate will keep your money in your pocket? The answer to that question has already been answered – Vote Rob Astorino to keep your money in your pocket and to keep taxes from skyrocketing like in New Rochelle.

    I saw a sign on Rob Astorino’s website and I like it, it read, “PROMISE MADE, PROMISE KEPT”

  22. i am an activist for human rights rob astorino is a pubbit on a string he hids the facts that taxes are everywhere if rob astorino is elected again of course he will lay of more people and gain his own wealth somewhere which 99 percent of the time is not on the books one again noam bramson for westchester county executive from human rights activist and a member of the new rochelle sports hall of fame comm thank you brian sten

  23. StilettoTreeHugger on

    Kim,

    You avoided my question … please explain how Astorino plans on paying the fines he racked up during his tenure as County Executive. He may “not” of raised taxes, but he’s cost the county more money than he or you seem to be willing to admit.

    You also failed to mention how Astorino’s policy has benefitted all of Westchester, not just for parts of the county north of 187.

    Why close mental health clinics?

    Why isn’t he paying Child Care providers on a timely basis for services they provide, which is needed for those who work in Westchester?

    Why does Astorino duck questions about his corrupt father, who was trusted and entrusted in caring for a community he betrayed?

    Why does Astorino avoid telling the truth about the Fair Housing settlement?

    Why does Astorino duck his responsibility to ensure the safety and quality of Westchester county’s water supply?

    He reopens the gun show … for money … but in the next breathe he’s costing us more money, than had he raised taxes by $.25 – $1.50,

    What jobs has Astorino created while in office? I know he’s fired many people, replacing them with patronage workers.

    Certainly Astorino supporters are able to answer some of these questions … you seem to know so much about his decisions and that of Noams … a genuine answer would be appreciated.

    No more ducking!!

  24. @StilettoTreeHugger – Glad to see you love trees, have you noticed that Rob Astorino was recently endorsed by one of the top environmental groups in the state?

    I will not answer your questions, question by question, however I will point out a few facts that may be important and in response to your rant.

    Rob Astorino has been endorsed by some major community players in New Rochelle, Mt. Vernon, Yonkers, the trade unions, law enforcement groups and most of the county unions that he has negotiated with over the last 4 years.

    As far as your reference to Rob Astorino’s support only being north of 287, that is a joke. Rob has been supported by all the groups I mentioned above and many other organizations or community leaders from southern Westchester. That is the difference between Rob and Noam, Rob does not view Westchester geographically in portions as Mayor Noam does, Rob views Westchester as a whole and looks out for the entire county. In fact, it would not surprise me if Rob were to split New Rochelle with Mayor Noam. I lived a few towns over from New Rochelle for years and I can tell you I am pleasantly surprised when I speak with my friends from New Rochelle who tell horror stories about Mayor Noam and his administration.

    The question you refuse to answer is, “How much has Mayor Noam raised taxes in New Rochelle in the last four years?” I can tell you Rob Astorino has not raised the taxes in Westchester County once in four years as he promised.

    I await your answer to this vitally important tax question.

    For the record, I am not voting on the “R” line across the board, in fact I will be voting for the democrat in my district who I believe will do a great job. I am not blinded by party politics, I consider myself a centrist and vote the person and not the party. I believe Rob Astorino is not scared to make tough decisions and he is clearly the better candidate for Westchester County

    I hope many democrats, independents, conservatives and republicans all come out and support Rob Astorino.

  25. Stiletto, you & Noam would just roll over & do whatever they want regardless without thinking of the ramifications 1st.

    What’s important is how Rob Astorino’s handling the job now and since he’s held the job. Then we compare that to what Mayor Noam Bramson’s doing with his current job, a position he’s been for 5-6 years.

    The comparisons are frightening, Bramson’s presided over a slew of tax hikes, poorly planned tax abatements to developers/donor friends and several new fees/taxes (garbage, library and has asked for approval to increase Utility Taxes while also putting in Red Light Cameras) while over at county government Astorino’s kept property taxes at ZERO and that was with the super-majority the Democrats had for his 1st 2 years as County Executive.
    The choice could be any clearer for me. How about you?

  26. StilettoTreeHugger on

    @ Kim,

    Astorino didn’t raise taxes, he just borrowed money, which actually costs the County more money … that’s a political move, just so that he can say “Hey but I didn’t raise taxes, you’ll just feel it later when it’s time to pay those loans back with interest.”

    You didn’t mention how he was planning on paying those fines.

    As for endorsements … lol … endorsements are made in the hopes of earning favors. The couple of people who endorsed Astorino from Mount Vernon, one doesn’t actually live in Westchester County and most of his congregants don’t live in Mount Vernon … so that wasn’t an endorsement by the residents of Mount Vernon. The second individual, City Council woman, who endorsed Astorino, is hoping he will help her with a particular project, which Astorino has already stood in the way of. Out of 5 City Council people, getting one isn’t an endorsement from the residents of Mount Vernon.

    As a matter of fact Astorino’s campaign is currently BREAKING THE LAW by having his posters plastered onto City property.

    You ignored the question about Child Care, that’s really vital for all of Westchester County.

    You also ignored the question about the safety of our water, and the fines Astorino has caused the residents of Westchester.

    So while he hides the financial problems HE CAUSED by saying “I didn’t raise taxes” … he fails to be honest about the bills that are going to hit Westchester residents and he’ll end up raising taxes, but he won’t care, because he got re-elected on lies and half truths.

    @ I ninety-five … please share with us how Astorino’s radio career makes him a “leader”? … town board member and 2 years as a County Legislator and you think that makes him a “Leader” with a proven record?? Record of what … how to manage a small town of wealth, means you can handle an entire County?

    At least Noam has been a leader of a large city. He’s saving NewRo money view the Sustainability practices he implemented which is on schedule to save the city millions. He’s helped to improve Storm water drainage which helps minimize the cost of the Water filtration and helps deposit less water in the Long Island Sound.

    And neither of you discussed Child Care?

  27. So am to take it that the Noam Bramson’s campaign thinks the endorsement of Rev. Richardson is insignificant? Below is a quick bio I just found on Rev. Richardson from the Grace Baptist Church. Are you telling me all 4000 members do not live in Mt. Vernon? Even if some don’t live in Mt. Vernon, most of his congregation does live in Westchester County. The endorsement of Rev. Richardson is significant because it shows that CE Astorino has support from a wide base of supporters.

    W. Franklyn Richardson is Senior Pastor of the historic Grace Baptist Church in Mount Vernon, New York. He has been the head of this vibrant, diverse, multi-staffed ministry since April, 1975. Under his leadership, the congregation has continually thrived, growing to include more than 4000 members.

  28. StilettoTreeHugger on

    Kim … Yeah … as a Mount Vernon resident … I’m telling you not everyone who goes to Grace Baptist Church is a Mount Vernon resident, many people come from the Bronx (considering the Bronx is about 5 blocks away).

    Also, One Pastor out of hundreds of Pastors in Mount Vernon, IS NOT AN ENDORSEMENT by the Mount Vernon community.

    Astorino is NOT being supported by 97% of the Mount Vernon community.

    Also by the way … Astorino is breaking the law now in Mount Vernon, with the audacity to put Campaign posters on City property. It’s disgusting how he’s treating our city. A reflection of his true self. Take your campaign posters off our electric polls, it’s against the law.

  29. The Branson people are going crazy with the fear of losing. The blog or your comments will not win the race. The candidate (Rob Astorino) with the best record on not raising taxes will win.

  30. StilettoTreeHugger on

    Why is it that none of the Astorino supporters can explain why Borrowing money, is better than raising taxes?

    Or how Astorino borrows money to avoid looking like he’s raising taxes? As if borrowing money is less expensive.

    And none of you have explained how Astorino cost the Tax Payers of the county more money in MILLIONS of Dollars in fines and how he plans on not raising taxes to pay those bills HE INCURRED.

    Just because he’s pretending to be Oz hiding his shenanigans behind the curtain, doesn’t mean he’s fiscally responsible. Because getting fines and borrowing money IS NOT FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE.

  31. noam bramson will gey in as county executive . you must realize thant the bank is the biggest wrole in a county position dont fire people and like rob astorino did give people the opertonity make the county better noam will astorino did not from brian sten of new rochelle activist for human rights

  32. anyone but Rob on

    What about all of those republican buddies that Asstorino has hired? Did I hear the number at 50+ patronage jobs? Is the plan: Want a job? just become a young Republican. Rob will cut a community service so you, your kid or your wife can get a 60k per year job. When you go crazy figuring it out, you won’t be able to see a shrink cuz the providers have wait lists. Oh better yet- let’s cut the day care subsidy so mothers can go on the tax roll 100% via public assistance. Cut the front end and suffer at the back. Great planning. No taxes raised- how many jobs lost? All of those County employees cut, yet Republicans get free jobs? Your taxes stayed the same but now Susie has to quit her job to take care of her kids. So back on food stamps etc. How is a community to get back on their feet without promoting honest employment? We eventually will pay. I am with Noam!