FiveThirtyEight: Gov. Cuomo has largest lead in the nation


As he seeks a second term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has the largest lead in the polls among states with governor’s races this year, according to an analysis published Thursday.

DCTinaYeeCuomoFiveThirtyEight on Thursday released its analysis of the 27 of the 30 states where the governor’s office is up for grabs this year. And Cuomo, a Democrat, came out on top — both in terms of his odds of winning and his lead in the polls.

The analysis looked at all of the public polls released in the governor’s races from January to June. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten took an average of each pollster’s polls to figure out the average margin between the major candidates in each race.

In New York, the average poll showed Cuomo with a 36.6 percentage point lead over his Republican opponent, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino. The next-largest margin was in Tennessee, where polls have shown Republican Gov. Bill Haslam with an average 30-point lead.

Based on the polls and its own forecast, FiveThirtyEight put Cuomo’s re-election odds at nearly 100 percent.

Most recently, a Marist College poll last week showed Cuomo with a 35-point lead over Astorino.

Astorino also is at a significant fundraising disadvantage. In campaign-finance disclosures made this week, Cuomo’s campaign had about $35 million on hand, compared to Astorino’s $2.4 million.

(File photo by Tina Yee / Democrat and Chronicle)


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  1. when was the last time a non incumbant republican
    beat a democrat for governor…Pataki vs cuomo sr in the
    1990’s when cuomo sought a third or fourth term ands cuomo had worn out his welcome, was far more liberal than his son who was his top campaign advisor….without dollars
    you cannot establish name id in new york state where
    even upstate media is expensive…if no one knows who
    you are it is virtually impossible to win regardless of
    how right you may be on the issues

  2. This is what happens when the NYS Republican Committee chooses a little wise guy who is nothing but a talker and has no record of accomplishment!